CAC 40: Unpleasant yoyo game

(News Bulletin 247) – The nervous game of yoyo continues on the Parisian market, the strong increases following the sharp drops, in a refreshed atmosphere since the appearance of a new variant of the coronavirus deemed “worrying” by the WHO. A source of uncertainty that operators appreciate only very moderately, even though the central banks on both sides of the Atlantic do not benefit from a very narrow margin of maneuver. The CAC 40 index, expected in the green at the opening this Friday, lost Thursday 1.25% to 6,795 points, partially weighed down by STMicroelectronics, the semiconductor sector suffering from information from the agency Bloomberg reporting that Apple suppliers have been warned of a contraction in global demand for the iPhone 13 model. Outside the flagship index, Soitec lost almost 7% to 224.40 euros for the same reason.

In terms of statistics, the two main landmarks of the morning were on the one hand the confirmation of an unemployment rate of 7.3% of the active population in the Euro Zone, but above all a surprise increase of 5.4% in “producer” prices in monthly rate in the Euro Zone, that is to say in comparison with the month of October over the month of September. If we compare to October 2020, the outbreak is … 21.9%. Across the Atlantic, the Department of Labor has published encouraging statistics on employment with new registrations for unemployment benefits in the order of 220,000 for the past week? Target beaten, therefore, before the publication of the federal NFP report today.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended Thursday’s session in the green, amid the outperformance of the Value files. The Dow Jones gained 1.82% to 34,639 points on Thursday, and the Nasdaq Composite 0.83% to 15,381 points. The S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 1.42% to 4,577 points.

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to 1,1280$. A barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in financial markets, was trading around 67,60$.

To be continued on the agenda this Friday, the final data of PMI Services in the Euro Zone at 10:00 am. ISM data for the US Services PMI will be available at 4:00 PM. And the highlight this Friday is the federal report on private employment in November which will be published at 2:30 p.m.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

We were awaiting the plot of the amplitude of a large figure of large consolidation to come. This has been done since Friday, and this marked increase in downward volatility. Result: a huge bearish gap and a close on the low points of the session almost. In addition, the bullish gap of November 1 was fully filled during the session, showing the installation of the flagship index in a new framework. A continuation of nervous oscillations is envisaged.

PREVISION

With regard to the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 7185.00 points would rekindle the purchase tension. While a break of 6485.00 points would revive the selling pressure.

Hourly data graph

Daily data graph

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