(News Bulletin 247) – Two major meetings on the agenda today across the Atlantic:
1)The first, the publication a few moments ago of retail sales figures, a dial still closely watched in trading rooms in the land of consumer queen. If for the month of July, sales have in their broadest sense stagnated. Excluding automobiles, they largely exceeded expectations at +0.4% month on month, according to the Census Bureau publication.
2) The second, the Minutes of the Fed, traditional report of the last FOMC meeting which will be particularly followed, in the wake of an oh so much appreciated slowdown in inflation across the Atlantic.
“If the CPI inflation rate for July has indeed come out in a marked slowdown”, recalls Sébastien GRASSET (Auris Gestion)”, below expectations (+0% month-on-month against +0.2% expected and +1.3 % in June), and this, even for its Core component (+0.3% month-on-month against +0.5% expected and +0.7% in June), “you have to know reason to keep because the prices of services (supported by the strong tensions on the labor market and the related wage increases) and food products continue to progress”.
“Neel Kashakari, who chairs the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, even added that it would be necessary for the Fed to raise its key rates to 4% this year and continue in 2023 towards 4.5%.” The market is, however, expecting a downward turn in the dollar’s rent from the second half of next year.
Verdict at 8:00 p.m. Paris time.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
At this stage of the rise in prices, since June 17, a breathing phase is envisaged until against the 20-day moving average (in dark blue), whose crossing with its 50-day counterpart (in orange), in a significant angle, released short-term upside potential. Immediately, the doji trace Tuesday 16 invites to momentarily ease the foot.
FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 13838.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 12140.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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