(News Bulletin 247) – In a generalized movement of one-off reflux on risky assets, with the approach of major monetary events, the Euro found perfect parity against the Dollar (at one Dollar per Euro, therefore). Level already tested in the middle of July. The new rise in government bond yields on the other side of the Atlantic will be watched like milk on the fire as the Jackson Hole symposium approaches, a traditional high mass of the planet’s great fundraisers. What is at stake is the pace, more or less aggressive, of raising federal rates. J. Powell will speak there on Friday.
For Bruno Cavalier, chief economist of Oddo BHF, the central banker “will undoubtedly endeavor not to appear ‘dovish’ [accommodant, NDLR]”because “the Fed’s anti-inflation credibility is at stake”. must,” he said.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told the Wall Street Journal on Thursday that he was in favor of raising rates by 75 basis points in September. Neel Kashakari, who chairs the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, not known especially for his hawkish character, even supported the scenario of a range of key rates to 4% this year and a continuation in 2023 in the direction of 4.5 %.
In terms of statistics, no major landmark is on the agenda this Monday. Agenda which will become much denser from tomorrow with valuable barometers of activity in services and industry, with the PMI surveys.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1 about.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
While the spot melted sharply in the direction of perfect parity, reaction forces, still difficult to quantify, are already emerging, suggesting a momentary opposition, within a trends major bearish.
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will maintain this neutral opinion as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity prices are positioned between the support at 1.0000 USD and the resistance at 1.0274 USD.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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