(News Bulletin 247) – The Nasdaq Composite (+2.14% to 11,791 points yesterday) is expected to be in the red on Thursday, after the increase in inflation forecasts from the ECB, which completed a new Board of Governors on Thursday, which resulted, as widely anticipated, in a 75 basis point increase in key rates. The sharp rise in French and German government bond rates follows the unanimous decision-making and additional announcements by C Lagarde on the continued rise in interest rates in the Euro Zone.
“The story is the same on both sides of the Atlantic: you have to hit hard and in the short term, even if you have to go through a recession, because otherwise the long-term costs for the economy would be much too important”, for Alexandre BARADEZ (IG France) The central bankers of the developed economies have therefore accommodated themselves to the possibility of a recession, it is clearly no longer a taboo subject.”
On the American monetary policy side, Mr J. Powell, Chairman of the Fed, will speak at 3:15 p.m. (Paris time) as part of the annual monetary conference of the CATO Institute (think tank libertarian). The opportunity to once again take the temperature on the character more or less hawkish of the Fed for the next few months, knowing that the United States is not at the same stage as the Euro Zone in the inflationary trajectory.
To follow crude stocks at 5:00 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
On marubozu black, in powerful volumes, the flagship index of technology stocks of the American dimension broke the neckline of a small figure in shoulder, head and shoulders, which signals the definitive end of the bullish leg started on June 17th. The index broke its 50-day moving average (in orange). The last time this technical event happened (08/04), the clearings accelerated: -23% until June 16, in significant volatility. In the immediate term, a short rebalancing of prices before a potential technical rebound of small magnitude is expected. Not enough to initiate buying positions, however.
FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 11990.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 11460.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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