Nasdaq Composite: The volatility of this month of December is not extinguished

(News Bulletin 247) – The reassuring remarks of Dr Fauci on the Omicron variant will have provoked a sudden renewed appetite for growth stocks, with very high valuation multiples, especially in the technological sector in the broad sense (semiconductors, services , software, cloud, social media, online entertainment, etc.). The Nasdaq Composite index even exceeded the 3% gain on Tuesday, closing at + 3.03% at 15,686 points, in volumes fed. Which doesn’t mean that the yoyo game is over …

The director of the emergency department of the WHO, Mike Ryan, reassured on the dangerousness of Omicron. Anthony Fauci, the Mr. Health of the White House, relying on the information provided by South African doctors had already been relatively optimistic Monday on the degree of dangerousness of Omicron, the new variant of the coronavirus. The scientist – appointed in January 2020 to the crisis unit formed by Donald Trump against the coronavirus, and confirmed by his successor Joe Biden as his main adviser in the matter – was even more affirmative on Tuesday during an interview telephone to AFP. While it will take at least two weeks to determine this precisely, “it is almost certain” now that Omicron “is not more serious than Delta.” Better, some signs suggest “that it could even be even less severe”. Conversely, Anthony Fauci believes that the new variant is “clearly highly transmissible”, arguably more than Delta.

To be continued on the agenda this Wednesday, to follow as a priority the new job offers (JOLTS) in the United States at 4:00 p.m. and crude stocks across the Atlantic at 4:30 p.m. But the main meeting of the week is expected on Friday with the various consumer price indices in the United States for the month of November. A raw material of choice for the Fed in its monetary thinking. The goal of the speakers is to refine the expected number of increases in federal rates over the year 2020, in the context of a rise in prices which has nothing more, according to J. Powell’s own admission, transitory. .

Because it is the question of the pace of monetary tightening in 2022 that will be a powerful determinant. “The question of the number of rate hikes is at the heart of the debates. [Les opérateurs ] now foresee three rate hikes next year, while maintaining those anticipated for 2023. The possible change in the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory has triggered a sharp increase in market volatility. “, for Mabrouk Chetouane, director Research and Strategy of BFT Investment Managers However, this number of expected increases may change rapidly, creating volatility on the index.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

Regarding the substantive technical framework, at this stage unchanged:

Since October 28 and the registration of new historic highs after those of September 07, the flagship index of technological stocks of the American stock market has systematically closed on the high points of the session, in strong volumes, which contracted only very little . The buying side, fully mobilized, does not ask any questions. Short term:

The entry into a digestion phase, the structure of which will be instructive for the future, should be considered. We are still in the process of defining the framework, and the amplitude, of future consolidation. A broader consolidation is looming. A first bearish acceleration within this consolidation was expressed, Tuesday, and Wednesday, in a larger amplitude but less strong volumes.

Neutral opinion on the scale of the only upcoming session. The ability to “hold” the 15,000 points will be essential. This was the case at the turn of the week, in low shade. An obvious inability to make a bullish extension today would validate the idea of ​​continued volatility, with new monthly lows reaching.

PREVISION

In view of the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 16212.00 points would rekindle the purchase tension. While a break of 15000.00 points would revive the selling pressure.

DAILY DATA CHART

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