(News Bulletin 247) – Deep bearish bias and rebalancing of short-term forces, this is in summary the trend picture that can be drawn on the Euro / Dollar currency pair, whose two components of the spot have been put under pressure by the Omicron variant in recent days, the Dollar due to the revised downward outlook for rate hikes over the coming year and the Euro due to its very nature as a barometer of risk appetite in the markets financial. Mechanically, the rather reassuring news, through the voice of Dr Fauci, gives new impetus to the two currencies, confirming this short-term rebalancing. However, we will get out of it, and the trigger could well be the long-awaited publication of the various consumer price indices in the United States tomorrow (2:30 p.m. Paris time). The appointment is therefore made for the traders.
The goal of the speakers is to refine the expected number of increases in federal rates over the year 2020, in the context of a rise in prices which has nothing more, according to J. Powell’s own admission, transitory. . “The question of the number of rate hikes is at the heart of the debates. [Les opérateurs ] “now foresee three rate hikes next year, while maintaining those anticipated for 2023. The possible change in the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory has triggered a sharp increase in market volatility”, for Mabrouk Chetouane, director Research and Strategy of BFT Investment Managers. However, this number of expected increases may change rapidly.
Yesterday in the statistical chapter, the operators were satisfied with the figures of new job offers (JOLTS) in the United States, whose target was beaten, on the eve of the publication of registrations for unemployment benefits. Published this morning, the monthly surplus in the German trade balance (October) came out at levels close to expectations, at 12.5 billion euros.
Appointment at 2:30 pm this Thursday for the new weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, expected to drop slightly to 218,000.
At midday on the forex market, the Euro was trading against 1,1315$ about.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The short current was strongly reinforced by the break of a technical zone at 1.1530, on marubozu on November 10th. This is a major fact, which resulted in a massive release of selling energy. The short term is aligned with the medium term, bearish, on the Euro / Dollar currency pair, but the entry point is no longer optimal, as the probabilities of the formation of a protest rebound increase at this stage. Traders will temporarily prefer to stay out of the spot while waiting for a suitable entry point. A break from the low points of November would give a signal.
MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the pair Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the price of the pair Euro Dollar (EURUSD) is positioned between the support at 1.1150 USD and the resistance at 1.1360 USD.
DAILY DATA CHART
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Source: Tradingsat
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