CAC 40: Two major monetary events this week

(News Bulletin 247) – On the eve of the weekend, the CAC symbolically lost 0.24% to 6,992 points, without therefore managing to preserve the symbolic threshold of 7,000 points, in volatility still as important during the same session. The latest figures for US inflation, in the sense of consumer prices, which were the statistical high point of the week, did not show any marked overheating in prices, as the Committee’s last meeting approached. of the Fed’s monetary policy (Wednesday). This Thursday it will be the turn of the European Central Bank (ECB) to complete its Board of Governors. The opportunity to refine the probabilities of a first monetary tightening by direct action on the rates as of the March deadline.

In the broadest product base, prices increased more than expected in November (+ 0.8% on a monthly basis), against + 0.9% in September. In data corrected for volatile elements (food and energy), prices rose 0.5%, in line with expectations, according to the latest data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. What feed the thinking of the Fed, without putting additional pressure.

In terms of stocks, the ranking of the flagship index did not show any marked trend. The luxury sector, whose rebound had been spectacular during the “rally of relief” vis-à-vis the dangerousness of the Omicron variant on Monday and Tuesday, remained in negative territory, which explains most of the decline in l ‘index given the weight of LVMH (-0.7%) and to a lesser extent Kering (-1.1%). Saint-Gobain posted the most pronounced decline (-2.3%, after four consecutive sessions of increase), while Sanofi and Carrefour rather shone (+ 2.9% each).

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices have picked up a few points, operators having been reassured by inflation. The Dow Jones gained 0.60% to 35,970 points, and the Nasdaq Composite 0.73% to 15,630 points. The S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.95% to 4,712 points.

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to 1,1290$. A barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in financial markets, was trading around 72,90$.

To be kept on the agenda this Monday, as a priority, the unemployment rate in Italy at 10:00 am. From tomorrow the statistical agenda will become denser, in particular with the producer price index in the United States.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

Omicron will have had the effect of revealing the hypersensitivity of the Parisian market, in particular its “Growth” files (for which the valuation multiples are high), mainly in luxury goods and technology. Result: the resumption of an unconditional buyer’s rally is no longer on the agenda. A continuation of broadband nervous oscillations should be considered. Band whose amplitude is now defined, between 6,650 and 7,185 points.

PREVISION

With regard to the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 7185.00 points would rekindle the purchase tension. While a break of 6656.00 points would revive the selling pressure.

Hourly data graph

Daily data graph

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