(News Bulletin 247) – The CAC 40 index managed to grab 0.49% on Tuesday to 6,641 points, with the support of two American statistics likely to reassure the financial community somewhat.
The manufacturing index of the New York Fed (Empire State index), first of all, which returned to positive territory, at 4.5 points, largely beating the target. “New orders were down slightly, while shipments were up slightly. […] Regarding the labor market, indicators point to a solid increase in employment and an increase in the number of hours worked. Input prices rose at about the same pace as last month, as the rise in selling prices accelerated. In contrast, companies expect business conditions to worsen over the next six months.”
The producer price index, then, which rose “only” by 0.2% on a monthly basis (stable excluding food and energy) in October, while the consensus foreshadowed a more pronounced rise in prices. This statistic further fuels hopes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will make less pronounced rate hikes in its upcoming meetings. It is resonating with CPIs (consumer price indices) which were a little more lenient than expected last week.
On the European side, to report a jump in the ZEW index of confidence in the German economy, from -59.2 to -36.7. “The ZEW indicator of the economic sentiment in the first economic power of the Euro Zone increases again in November. This is probably linked above all to the hope that inflation rates will soon fall. In this case, policymakers do not would not have to curb monetary policy so harshly. However, the economic outlook for the German economy is still clearly negative,” comments ZEW Chairman Professor Achim Wambach.
No surprise, however, regarding the first estimates of the change in GDP in the Euro Zone in Q3, at +0.2% from one quarter to the next.
Values in Paris, Teleperformance continues its reaction (+ 10.01% to 223 euros). As a reminder, the title collapsed last Thursday by nearly 35%, after the announcement of the opening of an investigation in Colombia on the conditions offered by the group to its employees. At the other end of the ranking on compartment A of the rating, Eutelsat dropped 5.6% after signing the definitive merger agreement with OneWeb.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0350. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $88.10.
To follow as a priority on the statistical agenda this Wednesday, the federal monthly report on industry at 3:15 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The good surprise of the slowdown in inflation on the other side of the Atlantic, if it caused a surge in the Nasdaq Composite and the Nasdaq 100, the S&P500 to a lesser extent, has a relief effect on this side of the Atlantic. The continued mobilization of the buying camp after the statistical publication was reflected on Thursday 10/11 by an ample marubozu, which came to cover the bearish gap of August 22, with a clear return to a resistance zone at 6,550 points. The ability to get rid of it in high volumes would pave the way for a continuation of the October rally. It is this level that is being redefined. Nothing is decided yet at this stage.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 6898.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 6390.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
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