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Saturday, February 4, 2023
HomeMarketsNasdaq Composite: A Confusing Employment Report

Nasdaq Composite: A Confusing Employment Report

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(News Bulletin 247) – The Nasdaq Composite index, the flagship index of technology stocks on the American quotation and by essence very sensitive to the slightest rise in sovereign bond yields, lost 1.47% at the close on Thursday, under the effect in particular of results of the survey by the private firm ADP, which highlighted much more job creations than expected in December. It is therefore with anxiety that the operators took note, this Friday, one hour before the opening of the debates on the actions, of the federal report NFP (for Non Farm Payrolls).

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The message sent by this NFP is twofold, and ambivalent. Because on the one hand the market is witnessing with relief a deceleration in the rise in average hourly wages (+0.3% monthly), but the unemployment rate, expected to be stable at 3.7% of the active population, is came out sharply down to 3.5%, suggesting that the Fed has not yet gone far enough in the firmness of its monetary policy to cool the economic machine. 223,000 jobs were created in the last month of 2022, in the private sector (excluding agriculture), a figure above expectations.

Enough to support the content of the Fed Minutes published earlier in the week. Minutes document from the latest FOMC that suggests federal rates could stay high, with no terminal rate details, for an extended period to combat “unacceptably high” inflation.

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“It is premature to claim victory in the fight against rising prices,” said Gita Gopinath, Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in an interview with the Financial Times, even before the publication of these figures on employment.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The flag (November 11 / December 14) is now broken, under volume conditions that make sense. The remainder of the November 10 gap is now fully filled, without isolation of sessions; the index has two short-term “falling points” (10,260 hits on Wednesday, then the symbolic threshold of 10,000 points), before considering a technical protest reaction. The RSI oscillatory suggests a short downside margin ahead of this technical bounce. A contrarian buying movement at the contact of 10,000 points is not excluded.

FORECAST

Considering the key chart factors we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.

This bearish scenario is valid as long as the Nasdaq Composite index is trading below the resistance at 10960.00 points.

CHART IN DAILY DATA

©2023 News Bulletin 247

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