(News Bulletin 247) – After closing on Friday, the Nasdaq Composite index was down 1.59% at 12,006 points, we should see a confirmation of the ebb on Monday, risk appetite on growth files remaining penalized both by the confirmation of persistent tensions on the employment market in the United States, and by rekindled diplomatic tensions between Washington and Beijing.
In detail, the private sector would have created nearly 520,000 jobs in the first month of the year, against 260,000 in December, and the unemployment rate, expected to rise very slightly to 3.6%, came out down. to 3.4% of the working population. Enough to prove J Powell right, in his warning this week. However, the moderation in wage increases is welcomed with relief. This runaway job creation, coexisting with a very low unemployment rate, casts doubt on a future acceleration in wage increases.
“After such a report on employment and such a strong rebound in the activity index in services, one can legitimately wonder if the Fed is comfortable with these figures and with wages: the annual increase has admittedly slowed down to 4.4% (which is however higher than the consensus of 4.3%) but the previous figure has been revised sharply upwards to 4.9% vs 4.6%,” asks Alexandre BARADEZ ( IG France), in the columns of Capital. The analyst warns: “his new intervention on Tuesday will be highly anticipated after the excellent figures on Friday.”
In addition, Sino-American tensions weigh. The United States shot down a Chinese balloon that had been flying over their soil for several days on Saturday, calling it a “spy” balloon, which Beijing denies, assuring that it was a weather surveillance aircraft that had deviated from its trajectory. The Chinese government said on Monday that the United States had “seriously affected and damaged” relations between the two countries and the head of American diplomacy Antony Blinken postponed his visit to Beijing.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
We did not witness an island of reversal on Friday (reverse island), due to the high traced shadow. What accredit the scenario of a volatile consolidation rather than a reversal. The idea of a pullback on the 11,450 points remains entirely credible.
FORECAST
Considering the key chart factors we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
This bearish scenario is valid as long as the Nasdaq Composite index is trading below the resistance at 12260.00 points.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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