(News Bulletin 247) – The US inflation figures published yesterday for the month of January, within the meaning of the CPI, confirmed the dynamics of volatile lateralization on the CAC 40 (+0.07% to 7,213 points, far from its session high points on Tuesday).

At an annualized rate, and for the largest basket of products, consumer prices increased by 6.4%, slightly slowing compared to December, while expectations were more “optimistic” (+6.2% ). Operators are gradually digesting the prospect of maintaining a firm monetary policy throughout 2023. Excluding food and energy, prices rose monthly by 0.4%, within the target.

“Further rate hikes could therefore prove necessary if the American economy were not to slow down enough, the main point of attention remaining inflation in services and tensions on the labor market”, recalled Sébastien Grasset (Auris Gestion) in a strategic editorial earlier this week.

On the stock side, corporate results continued to dictate the trend. Michelin managed to end the session in the green (+0.07% to 29.445 euros) despite the announcement of a free cash outflow of 180 million euros, compared with a positive flow in 2021 of 1.36 billion euros. In the media sector, TF1 lost 4% while M6 gained 1.2%. The sixth channel unveiled results above expectations while the accounts of the first are simply in line with analysts’ expectations. The two companies have also decided to focus on streaming after the failure of their merger. Finally, Beneteau picked up 5% after posting a 56.6% jump in sales in the fourth quarter.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended Tuesday’s session in mixed order, with the Dow Jones contracting 0.46% to 34,089 points, and the Nasdaq Composite managing to glean 0.57 % at 11,960, in the absence of reaction from 10-year Treasuries to the publication of CPIs. The S&P 500, the reference barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, stagnated (-0.03% to 4,136 points), offsetting the whole by its generalist and broadened character/

A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0710. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $79.30.

To be followed as a priority on the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, the trade balance in the Euro Zone at 11:00 a.m., and across the Atlantic: retail sales and the Empire State manufacturing index at 2:30 p.m., as well as the federal monthly report on industry at 3:15 p.m. Note also an intervention by Mrs. Lagarde, President of the ECB, before the European Parliament in Strasbourg, at 3:00 p.m.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

Despite the alert that sounded on Wednesday 08/02, the index “holds” for the time being, above 7,000 symbolic points, which serves as a basis for intermediate technical support. Above this symbolic threshold, a consolidation can take place without jeopardizing the short-term bullish bias. Below this, another serious safeguard is that of the 50-day moving average (in orange), bullish since the beginning of November 2022. There is therefore a significant reflux margin, which even if visited, would not come back questioning the bullish bias at this point.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of 7422.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 7000.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

The News Bulletin 247 board

CAC 40
Neutral
Resistance(s):
7422.00 / 7740.00
Medium(s):
7000.00 / 6760.00

Hourly data chart

Graphic made from the software Prorealtime

Chart in daily data

CAC 40: US inflation, stronger than expected, upsets investors little (©ProRealTime.com)
Graphic made from the software Prorealtime



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