by Claude Chendjou

PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to be stable or down slightly at the opening on Wednesday amid renewed fears of a prolonged rise in interest rates after the monthly inflation statistics in the United States which has been variously appreciated by the markets.

Index futures suggest near stability (+0.01%) for the CAC 40 in Paris, a decline of 0.12% for the Dax in Frankfurt, a drop of 0.04% for the FTSE 100 in London and a decline of 0.19% for the EuroStoxx 50.

The session should again be dominated by questions about central bank policies in the aftermath of the publication of consumer prices in the United States which showed both an acceleration over one month and a slowdown on an annual basis, leaving perplexed Investors.

Two US Federal Reserve officials, Lorie Logan and Thomas Barkin, however, said in the wake of this publication that the Fed should continue to raise the cost of credit to sufficiently curb inflation, perhaps above the peak of the rate currently imagined by the markets.

Ahead of the US inflation release, a Reuters survey showed the Fed could raise rates at least twice this year, but traders now expect three rate hikes and a spike to 5.25%-5.50 % by July, or even June, against 4.50%-4.75% currently.

In Europe, the Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, Gabriel Makhlouf, has said that the European Central Bank (ECB) could raise interest rates above 3.5% and keep them at this level this year in the face of inflation deemed still too high. An intervention by the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, is expected this Wednesday during a debate in the European Parliament.

In Britain, the rise in consumer prices (CPI) slowed more than expected in January over one year with an index at 10.1% against 10.5% in December, according to official statistics published on Wednesday.

On the economic level, investors will take note on Wednesday of the monthly data on industrial production in the euro zone and the United States as well as the American retail sales figures for the month of January.

In addition to these macroeconomic indicators, the session could be punctuated by financial publications from Carrefour, Kering, Heineken, Barclays, Cisco or even Kraft Heinz.

VALUES TO FOLLOW IN EUROPE:

AT WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange ended in mixed order on Tuesday, with only the Nasdaq finishing in the green, after the publication of monthly consumer prices in the United States which fueled the idea that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates. interest in the coming months.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.46%, or 164.41 points, to 34,089.40 points.

The broader S&P-500 fell 0.03% to 4,136.17 points.

The Nasdaq Composite advanced for its part by 0.57% to 11,960.15 points.

On the value side, Tesla recorded an increase of nearly 8%, which brings its increase since the start of the year to more than 60%, after having lost two-thirds of its value in 2022.

Boeing saw its stock jump to a peak in more than a year thanks to an order from Air India for 220 aircraft.

IN ASIA

On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index ended down 0.37% and the broader Topix fell 0.27%.

In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite fell 0.39% and the CSI 300 fell 0.52%.

The MSCI index comprising stocks from Asia and the Pacific (excluding Japan) fell by 1.4%.

RATE

The two-year US rate stabilized on Wednesday at 4.614% after climbing nine points the day before in response to inflation statistics. The ten-year one fell by one basis point, to 3.745% after a peak at 3.799% on Tuesday.

In Europe, the ten-year and two-year German Bund yields stood at 2.41% and 2.84% respectively the day after a sharp rise of more than seven points and almost eight points.

CHANGES

The dollar rose (+0.26%) on Wednesday against a basket of benchmark currencies, while the euro fell to 1.0712 dollars (-0.21%).

The pound sterling is trading at 1.2102 dollars (-0.61%) after the British inflation figures.

OIL

The oil market is affected by signs of an increase in supply and a slowdown in demand: Brent falls 0.95% to $84.77 a barrel and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) 1.04% to $78.24.

MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE AGENDA FOR FEBRUARY 15:

COUNTRY GMT INDICATOR PERIOD PREVIOUS CONSENSUS

EZ 10:00 Industrial production December -0.8% +1.0%

– over one year -0.7% +2.0%

USA 1:30 p.m. Retail sales January +1.8% -1.1%

– over one year nd +6.02%

USA 2:15 p.m. Industrial production January +0.5% -0.7%

– over one year nd +1.65%

(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Blandine Hénault)

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