by Claude Chendjou

PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to fall on Wednesday at the opening in a session which should again be marked by questions about the evolution of interest rates while the American Federal Reserve (Fed) must publish in the evening the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting.

Index futures suggest a decline of 0.36% for the CAC 40 in Paris, 0.30% for the Dax in Frankfurt, 0.31% for the FTSE 100 in London and 0.38% for the EuroStoxx 50.

The latest PMI indicators for the month of February in Europe and the United States showed a still dynamic economy, particularly in services, despite the accelerated raising of interest rates by central banks to curb demand in the face of inflation deemed still too high.

In Germany, inflation at European standards for the month of January was confirmed on Wednesday at 0.5% over one month and 9.2% over one year. Investors are now waiting for business climate indices in France and Germany.

The Fed, for its part, will publish at 19:00 GMT the “minutes” of its meeting on February 1, while the latest figures for the job market and consumer prices in the United States show greater robustness than expected.

“Every time the market tries to convince itself that the Fed will soon ease its restrictive policy, it is contradicted by the fact that it probably won’t happen for the next six months or so,” notes portfolio manager Tom Plumb. at Plumb Balanced Fund.

In addition to macroeconomic concerns, the financial publications of large groups such as Danone, Stellantis, Eiffage, Rio Tinto, Nvidia or eBay should animate the exchanges.

VALUES TO FOLLOW:

AT WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange ended lower on Tuesday, notably under the effect of the decline in major technology stocks, while data indicating a rebound in activity in the United States in February fueled fears that the Fed would proceed with a higher than expected rate hike.

The Dow Jones index fell 2.06%, or 697.10 points, to 33,129.59 points.

The broader S&P-500 fell 81.75 points, or 2.00%, to 3,997.34 points.

The Nasdaq Composite fell for its part by 294.97 points (2.50%) to 11,492.30 points.

It’s the worst session for major Wall Street indices since the start of the year: the Dow Jones having now wiped out all of its 2023 gains, while the Nasdaq and S&P-500 ended in the red for a third consecutive session.

IN ASIA

At the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index ended Wednesday down 1.34% to 27,104.32 points and the wider Topix fell 1.11% to 1,975.25 points.

In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite fell 0.43% and the CSI 300 lost 0.86%.

The MSCI index comprising stocks from Asia and the Pacific (excluding Japan) fell by 0.91%.

CHANGES

The dollar, which gained 0.3% on Tuesday, fell slightly (-0.05%) on Wednesday against a basket of benchmark currencies.

The Japanese currency is trading at 134.75 yen per dollar after hitting a two-month low the previous day, at 135.23.

The euro is trading at 1.0657 dollars (+0.1%).

The New Zealand currency took 0.3% to 0.6232 dollars after rising to 0.6248 in reaction to Wednesday’s increase by the central bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in its rates by 50 basis points to 4 .75%, a 14-year high.

RATE

The yield on 10-year US Treasuries is stable after rising to 3.96%, the highest since November.

The yield of the ten-year German Bund appears at 2.54%, almost unchanged, after having taken nearly eight basis points the day before.

In Japan, the ten-year JGB yield hit 0.505% for the second consecutive session, above the 0.50% cap set by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), prompting the central bank to say that it would make emergency bond purchases.

OIL

Oil prices are falling in the face of a possible rise in interest rates, which should affect demand: Brent lost 0.41% to $82.71 a barrel and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) 0, 5% to $75.98.

MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE AGENDA FOR FEBRUARY 22

COUNTRY GMT INDICATOR PERIOD PREVIOUS CONSENSUS

FR 07:45 Business climate index February 103 103

in industry (INSEE)

FROM 09:00 a.m. Ifo climate index for February 91.2 90.2

business

*first estimate

*first estimate

THE MARKET SITUATION:

(Some data may show a slight shift)

SCHOLARSHIPS

ASIAN

Indices Last Var. Var. %YTD

points

Nikkei-225 27104.32 -368.78 -1.34% +3.87%

Topix 1975.25 -22.21 -1.11% +4.42%

Hong Kong 20464.27 -65.22 -0.32% +3.45%

Taiwan 15,418.77 -144.23 -0.93% +9.06%

Seoul 2417.68 -41.28 -1.68% +8.11%

Singapore 3300.37 -6.49 -0.20% +1.51%

Shanghai 3292.16 -14.36 -0.43% +6.57%

Sydney 7314.50 -21.80 -0.30% +3.92%

The closing in Tokyo:

[.TFR]

WALL STREET

The previous close:

Indices Last Var. Var. %YTD

points

Dow Jones 33129.59 -697.10 -2.06% -0.05%

S&P 500 3997.34 -81.75 -2.00% +4.11%

Nasdaq 11492.30 -294.97 -2.50% +9.80%

Nasdaq 100 12060.30 -297.89 -2.41% +10.24%

Detail of the session on Wall Street

: [.NFR]

“The Day Ahead” – The point on the next

session on wall street [DAY/US]

MARKETS

EUROPEANS

Futures on the CAC 40 and the EuroStoxx50

The values ​​to follow in Paris and in

Europe: [WATCH/LFR]

The previous session:

Closing Indices Var. Var. %YTD

points

Eurofirst 300 1831.43 -3.66 -0.20% +9.12%

Eurostoxx 50 4250.40 -20.78 -0.49% +12.04%

CAC 40 7,308.65 -26.96 -0.37% +12.90%

Dax 30 15,397.62 -79.93 -0.52% +10.59%

FTSE 7977.75 -36.56 -0.46% +7.06%

SMI 11282.16 +15.48 +0.14% +5.15%

CHANGES

Var. %YTD

Euro/Dlr 1.0655 1.0646 +0.08% -0.44%

DLR/Yen 134.74 134.99 -0.19% +2.77%

Euro/Yen 143.61 143.77 -0.11% +2.36%

Dlr/CHF 0.9261 0.9277 -0.17% +0.18%

Euro/CHF 0.9869 0.9876 -0.07% -0.26%

Stg/Dlr 1.2112 1.2115 -0.02% +0.12%

Index $ 104.0960 104.1760 -0.08% +8.24%

RATE

Last Var. Spread/Bund

(pts)

10-year bunds 2.5400 +0.0020

Bund 2 years 2.9510 +0.0000

10-year OATs 3.0200 +0.0010 +48.00

10-year Treasury 3.9351 -0.0180

Treasury 2 years 4.6643 -0.0400

OIL

(in dollars) Previous Price Var Var.% YTD

US light crude 75.97 76.36 -0.39 -0.51% +24.11%

Brent 82.72 83.05 -0.33 -0.40% +25.28%

(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Bertrand Boucey and Kate Entringer)

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