(News Bulletin 247) – The CAC 40 (-0.12% to 7,315 points on Thursday) is expected to fall very sharply this Friday, ahead of a highly anticipated publication on American employment, and the day after a sharp decline in the main American indices, after the difficulties revealed by a banking establishment historically specialized in the financing of technological files in Silicon Valley, SVB Financial Group.
On employment, THE figure that operators will nervously wait for is the creation of jobs in the private sector (excluding agriculture), which the consensus figures at 224,000, after a peak at more than 500,000 for the month of January. . Any significant deviation from the consensus will make it possible to gauge the importance of the persistent tensions on the employment front, tensions which themselves generate inflation. A figure which will take on a particular color after J Powell’s series of hearings before the Parliamentarians in the first part of the week, a hearing marked by a hardening of tone, provoking an upward revision of terminal rates for many managers.
Operators had a taste on Wednesday, with the publication of the private resource firm ADP, which highlighted job creations of around 242,000, far exceeding analysts’ expectations. Small relief on Thursday, with weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, which stood at 211,000, the “highest” since the end of 2022. This figure, which sheds light on the tensions on the job market, had been regularly below 200,000 since Several weeks.
To follow at 2:30 p.m. this Friday the NFP report, with in detail, the dynamics of hourly wages, the unemployment rate and job creations in the private sector (excluding agriculture).
Side values, JCDecaux collapsed by 16.9% after having published a profitability below expectations and delivered a cautious outlook for the first quarter. Maisons du Monde lost 12.7%, while its 2022 results were weighed down by the decline in household purchasing power, itself eroded by inflation. OVHcloud fell 12%, hurt by the sale of around 5 million shares by two investment funds, according to Reuters, at an 8% discount to Wednesday’s closing price. Dassault Aviation gained 12.2% driven by sharply higher results, with a level of available cash deemed “impressive” by UBS. The aircraft manufacturer signed the largest increase in the SBF 120.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices closed in bright red territory, like the Dow Jones (-1.66% to 32,254 points) and the Nasdaq Composite (-2.05% at 11,338 points). The S&P500, benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, lost 1.85% to 3,918 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0600. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $74.90.
To follow in priority on the macroeconomic agenda this Friday the monthly federal report on employment at 2:30 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The bearish engulfing sequence in powerful volumes and harami in much more discreet volumes, in the upper part of the bullish momentum movement, releases a short-term bearish potential, a potential that would only gain momentum in the event of a break in the moving average at 50 days (in orange) by its sister at 20 days (in dark blue). Note the closing close to the lows of the session on Wednesday, of course, but the absence of fear at this stage. The fight against this moving average is fierce, and violent oscillations chop this flattening trend line. The option of broader consolidation takes shape at this stage. With a first stage of strong downward volatility from this Friday.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is trading below the resistance at 7422.00 points.
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