(News Bulletin 247) – The Euro remained at the bottom of a technical straitjacket that has gripped it since the beginning of December against the Dollar, itself favored in the very short term by the renewed strength of government bonds LT. At the same time, the very good performance of the equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic, and the ability of crude to raise its head, allows the Euro, as a member of the family of assets said at risk of not getting out of its bevel for the moment. Result: a perfect balance of the forces present, always with the same risk (see below) of a false exit from the top before a return to the formation of a wide bearish leg, which corresponds to the underlying trend.
A statistical chapter yesterday; two disappointments in the sense of the gap to consensus, concerning the ISM manufacturing index, at 58.7, in sharp contraction despite a 19th consecutive month of expansion (score above 50), and the new job offers (JOLTS), which missed expectations. What to direct the magnifying glass to the ADP investigation which will be published this afternoon, before the federal NFP report on Friday.
Timothy R. Fiore, CPO of Ryder, and ISM member, commented on the leading indicator numbers: “The US manufacturing sector remains in a demand-driven, supply-chain constrained environment, with clear signs of improvements in labor resources and supplier delivery performance Shortages of low-end materials, high commodity prices and product transportation difficulties continue to hamper consumption Global issues related to the coronavirus pandemic – worker absenteeism, short-term closures due to parts shortages, staff turnover and overseas supply chain issues – continue to impact manufacturing . “
To be continued this Wednesday for the United States, the results of the ADP survey on employment at 2.15 p.m., oil stocks at 4.30 p.m. and the Fed Minutes at 8.00 p.m.
In the immediate future, RAS concerning the final data of the services PMI (IHS Markit) in the Euro Zone, in final data for December, at 53.1, without much difference compared to the previous estimate.
At midday on the forex market, the Euro was trading against 1,1310$ about.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
For now, the Euro / Dollar currency pair is still in the path of a wedge consolidation wedge, which fits into a strongly bearish background momentum. The configuration remains heavy, but we warn against the temptation of an early return to bearish positions, the “risk” of a false exit from the top, in the very short term, being present. We are still waiting for a much better entry point.
MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the pair Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the price of the pair Euro Dollar (EURUSD) is positioned between the support at 1.1216 USD and the resistance at 1.1360 USD.
DAILY DATA CHART
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Source: Tradingsat
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