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The pre-opening on Wall Street suggests red will be the dominant color on Tuesday, while investors are awaiting quarterly copies, made after the market, of two digital giants of artificial intelligence, Alphabet and Microsoft, before clutching two other tech heavyweights, Meta and Amazon for the rest of a very busy week.

In addition, the setbacks of First Republic Bank, an American regional bank, sounds like a painful reminder for the market… The establishment announced a stronger flight of deposits than anticipated by analysts, of more than 70 billion dollars in the first quarter. In the first three months of 2023, First Republic Bank lost more than 70 billion dollars in deposits, (72 billion), or 40% of the total, deposits amounting to 104.5 billion dollars at the end of March against 176 .44 billion dollars at the end of December. Surveyed by Bloomberg, analysts expected a loss of “only” $ 41 billion in the quarter.

Beyond the micro-economy, operators are particularly attentive to signs of a slowdown in the world’s largest economy, as new monetary events approach. See you at 4:00 p.m. for major appointments, such as the consumer confidence index, expected to be stable at around 104 points, and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, expected to drop to -8.

“While economies are nonetheless slowing, this is forcing central bankers to play a tightrope and divergences among members, both in the United States and in the eurozone, are increasingly marked,” notes Thomas Giudici, head of bond management at Auris Gestion. “However, as Jerome Powell has repeatedly reminded us, central bankers prefer to err by increasing too much, at the risk of slowing the economy more abruptly, than stopping monetary tightening prematurely.”

Verdict for a break, or a last turn of the screw, next month (03/05), at the end of the FOMC. By then we will have additional benchmarks on inflation and employment.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

This breathing phase is all the more possible as the star doji drawn on Friday followed two marubozus of opposite colors, at the very heart of a thin strip of work (tidy) between 11,900 points and yearly highs around 12,270 points. Above, and subject to an increase in volumes and volatility, the upward path started on the double dip at the turn of the year is assured. Below, the filling of the bullish gap of March 29 is in the sights. A visit to the lower terminal of the tidy identified is expected. On the scale of the session to come, such a visit is likely from the first part of the session.

FORECAST

Considering the key chart factors we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.

This bearish scenario is valid as long as the Nasdaq Composite index is trading below the resistance at 12270.00 points.

The News Bulletin 247 board

Nasdaq Composite
Negative
Resistance(s):
–
Medium(s):
–

CHART IN DAILY DATA

Graphic made from the software Prorealtime



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