(News Bulletin 247) – The energizing effect of Treasuries The 10-year dollar continued to oppose another antagonistic force on the currency pair: relief, at this point, over Omicron’s “dangerous” level. Especially since the risk that it represents “seems […] limited by the experience of governments and the effectiveness of vaccines “can be read in a macroeconomic note from Indosuez Wealth Management on the Eurozone. The team of economists confirms a” scenario of high growth – above potential, but down compared to 2021 – for the year 2022. At the same time, inflation – which is mainly due to the increase in energy prices – could reach a peak in the coming months before returning to more normal levels, while by staying above the 2% threshold “
Published on Friday morning, inflation figures in the Eurozone came out higher than expected, at + 2.6% in very first estimates for December, at an annualized rate, excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco (volatile elements ). A price increase that reaches the symbolic threshold of 5% if we include these elements in the basket …
Statistical high point on Friday, the private sector (excluding agriculture) created in December a little less than 200,000 jobs, far, very far from expectations. On the other hand, the unemployment rate for its part continues to decline, falling below the 4% mark of the working population. On private employment, the NFP highlights the continuing upward trend in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, manufacturing, construction, transport and warehouses. logistics. The question now is how the market will interpret it in terms of tensions on the job market. Tensions that were on the agenda of the Minutes published earlier in the week, precisely.
Events which have combined to significantly heat up long-term government bond yields in the United States. Slightly ebbing this morning, they gravitated between 1.77 and 1.78 all the same.
This Monday morning, good news to report concerning the Sentix index of confidence of operators in the Euro Zone, which beat expectations by approaching 15 points. RAS concerning the unemployment rate in the Euro Zone, which continues to decline as expected, to 7.2% of the working population, the lowest since … July 2008.
No significant American figure is on the agenda on Monday. The next large-scale event, with a high potential impact on the spot, is inflation within the meaning of the consumer price index on Wednesday.
At midday on the forex market, the Euro was trading against 1,1330$ about.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
In the immediate future, the Euro / Dollar currency pair is always in the path of a bevel (wedge) wedge consolidation, which fits into a powerfully bearish background momentum. The configuration remains heavy, but we warn against the temptation of an early return to bearish positions, the “risk” of a false top exit, in the very short term, being present. We are still waiting for a much better entry point. So beware of action bias.
MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the pair Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the price of the pair Euro Dollar (EURUSD) is positioned between the support at 1.1216 USD and the resistance at 1.1360 USD.
DAILY DATA CHART
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Source: Tradingsat
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