(News Bulletin 247) – Warming up Treasuries at 10 years, yields on US LT government bonds, should continue to put pressure on the Nasdaq Composite, expected to decline at the opening. Over the past week as a whole, the ebb amounted to 4.53%, under the effect of a hardening of tone by the Fed, noted in its Minutes, a hardening particularly detrimental to assets whose valuation multiples are high . US growth stocks, especially in the tech sector, are at the forefront of profit taking. Tensions in the job market, confirmed after the publication of the NFP on Friday, have further strained a market that already has its eyes nervously on the release of inflation figures on Wednesday (CPI).
“The much less accommodating tone of the Fed confirms the acceleration of the current monetary tightening. The Federal Reserve should continue to reduce its asset buybacks until March and could, as early as the same month, announce a first rate hike. The probability of seeing an increase at the March meeting is now 79.2%, according to CME’s Fed Watch. It was only 35.8% a month earlier. “notes Vincent Boy (IG France ).
Statistical high point on Friday, the private sector (excluding agriculture) created in December a little less than 200,000 jobs, far, very far from expectations. On the other hand, the unemployment rate for its part continues to decline, falling below the 4% mark of the working population. On private employment, the NFP highlights the continuing upward trend in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, manufacturing, construction, transport and warehouses. logistics. The question now is how the market will interpret it in terms of tensions on the job market. Tensions that were on the agenda of the Minutes published earlier in the week, precisely.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
Regarding the substantive technical framework, at this stage unchanged:
Since October 28 and the registration of new historic highs after those of September 07, the flagship index of technological stocks of the American stock market has systematically closed on the high points of the session, in strong volumes, which contracted only very little . The buying side, fully mobilized, does not ask any questions. An oblique straight line (drawn in black) perfectly symbolizes the basic appetite of buyers, as well as their long-term mobilization.
A court terme:
On the other hand, the picture is much more nuanced in the short term since the all-round bearish of November 22, after recordings of historic highs. Yesterday in solid volumes, the index came to close on the low points exactly, after continuous losses during the session, leaving a trace of a candle in marubozu school. The flagship index of technology stocks in the US came to test a steeply sloping bullish slant (in black), which we are putting under close watch. Its rupture, in progress, must still be validated by volatility and volumes.
PREVISION
In view of the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
This bearish scenario is valid as long as the Nasdaq Composite Index quotes below the resistance at 15900.00 points.
DAILY DATA CHART
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Source: Tradingsat
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