Nasdaq Composite: Welcome backflow of 10-year Treasuries

(News Bulletin 247) – After a bright red week 1 (-4.53%) in the prospect of a tighter than expected monetary turn, the Nasdaq Composite (14,942 points at the close yesterday) begins week 2 in nervousness, with significant differences between low points and high points during yesterday’s session. Little difference at the close however (+ 0.05%), but this was enough to unceremoniously close the large gap of October 14th. In the absence of sharp statistical benchmarks on this day, traders are waiting (which does not prevent the nervousness) of the inflation figures.

“The much less accommodating tone of the Fed confirms the acceleration of the current monetary tightening. The Federal Reserve should continue to reduce its asset buybacks until March and could, as early as the same month, announce a first rate hike. The probability of seeing an increase at the March meeting is now 79.2%, according to CME’s Fed Watch. It was only 35.8% a month earlier. “notes Vincent Boy (IG France ).

Statistical high point on Friday, the private sector (excluding agriculture) created in December a little less than 200,000 jobs, far, very far from expectations. On the other hand, the unemployment rate for its part continues to decline, falling below the 4% mark of the working population. On private employment, the NFP highlights the continuing upward trend in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, manufacturing, construction, transport and warehouses. logistics. The question now is how the market will interpret it in terms of tensions on the job market. Tensions that were on the agenda of the Minutes published earlier in the past week, precisely.

As such, it will be interesting to gauge the temperature of consumer prices tomorrow, after at least offensive Minutes last week, and an employment report showing persistent signs of tension. Verdict tomorrow 2:30 p.m. with the CPIs. Excluding food and energy, prices are expected to increase by 0.5% for the month of December, on a monthly basis.

The Treasuries at 10 years will remain an essential dial for anyone who wants to work on the index currently, falling below 1.76.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

Regarding the substantive technical framework, at this stage unchanged:

Since October 28 and the registration of new historic highs after those of September 07, the flagship index of technological stocks of the American stock market has systematically closed on the high points of the session, in strong volumes, which contracted only very little . The buying side, fully mobilized, does not ask any questions. An oblique straight line (drawn in black) perfectly symbolizes the basic appetite of buyers, as well as their long-term mobilization.

A court terme:

On the other hand, the picture is much more nuanced in the short term since the all-round bearish of November 22, after recordings of historic highs. Yesterday in solid volumes, the index came to close on the low points exactly, after continuous losses during the session, leaving a trace of a school marubozu candle. The flagship index of technology stocks in the US came to test a steeply sloping bullish slant (in black), which we are putting under close watch. Its rupture, in progress, must still be validated by volatility and volumes.

PREVISION

In view of the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 15000.00 points would rekindle the purchase tension. While a break of 14445.00 points would revive the selling pressure.

DAILY DATA CHART

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