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The CAC 40 returned 0.59% to 7,397 points on Tuesday, in a nervous atmosphere at the approach of the publication, this Wednesday at 2:30 p.m., of the consumer price indices in the United States. An essential basis for reflection and work for the Fed in the construction of its monetary policy.

Operators are digesting the content of the latest federal monthly jobs report, which “has been surprisingly resilient with vigorous job creation (despite downward revisions over the past two months) and above all a falling unemployment rate. down to 3.4%”, for Joffrey Ouafqa, Chief Investment Officer of Auris Gestion. “However, traditionally recessions start when the unemployment rate increases by 100 basis points… We are very far from that! Unless the tensions within the regional banks accelerate the slowdown of the economy…”

It was also on the side of China that the renewed tension came yesterday, penalizing the sacrosanct luxury sector. The world’s second-largest economy is showing signs of weakness as China’s exports rose 8.5% year on year last month, down from March’s 14.8% growth, while imports fell 8.5% year-on-year. 7.9%, more than in March (-1.4%) and much more than the consensus of economists polled by Bloomberg (-0.2%).

In the process, LVMH lost 0.46% to 880.4 euros, Hermès 1.06% to 1,988 euros, L’Oréal 1.31% to 422.7 euros and Kering 2.71% to 549.2 euros .

“The tightening of financial conditions via banking stress but also via the continuation of monetary normalization by the Fed and the ECB, tensions around the US debt ceiling, the end of the earnings season and mixed macroeconomic data in Europe, the United States and China offer the “perfect” context for a few gains on the equity markets and more consolidation”, summarizes Alexandre Baradez (IG France).

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended Tuesday’s session in the red, like the Dow Jones (-0.17% to 33,561 points), or the Nasdaq Composite (- 0.63% at 12,179 points). The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, fell 0.46% to 4,119 points.

A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0970. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $73.10.

To follow as a priority on the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, the consumer price indices in the United States at 2:30 p.m., go to tick in red on the schedule of the day. In their broadest product base, prices are expected to rise 5.0% annualized.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

Beware of the probable commitment of the three-color flagship index in a shoulder, head and shoulders pattern above a graphic base materialized by the bullish gap of March 30, below 7,235 points. We will watch like the milk on the fire, the continuation if necessary of this route to identify work scenarios. In the immediate future, no clear directional asserts itself.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is trading below the resistance at 7585.00 points.

The News Bulletin 247 board

CAC 40
Negative
Resistance(s):
7585.00 / 7740.00
Medium(s):
7316.00 / 7234.00 / 7088.00

Hourly data chart

Graphic made from the software Prorealtime

Chart in daily data

CAC 40: Signs of shortness of breath (©ProRealTime.com)
Graphic made from the software Prorealtime



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