by Claude Chendjou

PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to rebound slightly on Thursday, investors digesting the data on consumer prices in the United States published the day before which raised questions before being perceived generally positively while a another inflation indicator should be published during the day.

Futures contracts on indices suggest an increase of 0.32% for the CAC 40 in Paris, 0.26% for the Dax in Frankfurt, 0.19% for the FTSE 100 in London and 0.28% for the EuroStoxx 50.

After the publication on Wednesday of consumer price (CPI) figures in the United States which showed a slowdown in inflation over one year to 4.9% in April but an acceleration to 0.4% over one month, the Investors will be closely watching the producer price (PPI) data due at 12:30 GMT. The Reuters consensus anticipates a slowdown in the PPI to 2.4% over one year in April (after +2.7% in March) but a rebound of 0.3% over one month after a contraction of 0.5% in March.

In addition to the PPI, the weekly jobless claims statistic will come under scrutiny as the US monthly jobs report, released last week, showed a still-resilient labor market in April, offering some relief from the threat of a recession but raising fears about the evolution of interest rates.

For now, according to CME Group’s Fedwatch Barometer, the market is expecting a 95% probability of a status quo on US Federal Reserve (Fed) rates next month after rising 25 basis points last week.

Still on the monetary policy front, the Bank of England (BoE) holds its meeting at 11:00 GMT and a quarter point rate hike is also expected.

On the corporate results side, publications from Engie, JCDecaux, Bayer, Merck KGaA, Deutsche Telekom, Telefonica, Walt Disney or Tapestry should drive the exchanges.

VALUES TO FOLLOW IN EUROPE:

AT WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange ended in mixed order on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 benefiting from inflation data and Alphabet announcements.

The Dow Jones index fell 0.09%, or 30.48 points, to 33,531.33 points.

The broader S&P-500 gained 18.47 points, or 0.45%, to 4,137.64 points.

The Nasdaq Composite advanced for its part by 126.89 points (+ 1.04%) to 12,306.44 points.

“Markets viewed this (inflation) data as a pretty positive,” said Michael Harris, chairman of Quest Partners, adding that the Fed will now “wait to see (how things develop) in the coming months. .”

This benefited technology stocks such as Apple (+1.03%) and Microsoft (1.72%), as well as Alphabet (+4.09%), the parent company of Google, which also unveiled new products based on artificial intelligence.

Airbnb fell more than 10% after reporting slower booking growth in the current quarter.

IN ASIA

On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index fell 0.08% to 29,098.19 points and the wider Topix fell 0.26% to 2,080.43 points as the close approached, second consecutive session in the red after mixed results from companies

The MSCI index comprising stocks from Asia and the Pacific (excluding Japan) lost 0.4%.

In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite lost 0.14%, while the CSI 300 gained 0.04%.

In the Chinese statistics of the day, the consumer price index (CPI) slowed in April to 0.1% year on year after +0.7% in March and that of producer prices (PPI) fell for a seventh consecutive month (-3.6% after -2.5%).

RATE

Yields on ten-year and two-year U.S. Treasuries were virtually unchanged on Thursday at 3.4364% and 3.9265%, respectively, after falling nearly ten points the previous day on the inflation data. American.

CHANGES

In foreign exchange, the dollar was stable (-0.02%) on Thursday against a basket of reference currencies and far from its peak for the year hit on March 8 at 105.88 points. Some analysts, like Shinichiro Kadota, strategist at Barclays, believe that the Fed is done with raising rates. Money markets are pricing the likelihood of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in June at just 5%.

The euro is almost unchanged at 1.0977 dollars (-0.03%), as is the pound sterling, which is displayed at 1.262 dollars (-0.03%).

Banque de France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the ECB’s next rate hikes would be “marginal”, while the BoE is expected to make a twelfth consecutive rise in the cost of credit on Thursday, but only by 25. basis points.

OIL

The oil market, driven by solid data on fuel demand in the United States, the world’s largest consumer of crude, resumed colors on Thursday after a drop of more than a dollar the day before: Brent gained 0.93% to 77 .12 dollars a barrel and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) 0.91% to 73.22 dollars.

(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Bertrand Boucey)

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