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While the Dow Jones was affected by the banks and Disney, the Nasdaq Composite managed to grab a few points on Thursday (+0.18% to 12,328 points), in a market which, step by step, is trying to measure the effects , at this stage, of a restrictive monetary policy.

“After more than a decade of ‘easy money’, the financial system has spent the last year trying to adjust to a regime of much tighter monetary conditions, the impact of which is only beginning to be fully felt. “, note the strategists of Jupiter AM, for whom “the conditions of access to credit should (still) harden”.

“Over the past few quarters, the trend in leading indicators point to a macroeconomic slowdown (e.g. manufacturing PMIs are still below 50 in the US, Eurozone, UK and Japan, while the US CPI fell for the ninth month in a row, reaching its lowest level since May 2021. The coming months will be key to seeing any significant changes in trends, especially in labor market data.”

As a reminder, private employment in the United States remains very (too?) solid, according to the April NFP report, published exactly one week ago. All targets had been significantly exceeded by then. Firstly on the number of jobs created in the private sector (excluding agriculture), at 253,000 in April. On the closely watched wage dynamics, up monthly by 0.5%, which reflects an acceleration compared to March (+0.3%). And finally on the unemployment rate, which fell to 3.4% of the working population, i.e. almost full employment. The consensus was for stabilization at 3.6%.

In the American statistical department on Thursday, the producer price index, up 0.2% in April, came out in line with the target. Moreover, the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, although exceeding the consensus by 20,000 new units, still betray recurring tensions on the employment front.

We carefully follow this Friday, at 4:00 p.m. (Paris time), the publication of the consumer confidence index (University of Michigan), expected at 63.0 points in preliminary data this month.

On the values ​​side, Alphabet (+4.31% to $116.57) managed to amplify the already copious gains of the day before (+4.10%). As a reminder, the company excited the market after presenting different services leveraging AI, including a tool for generating automated responses to emails.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The 12,270 zone is gradually asserting itself as a major resistance, under which the power of attraction of the March 29 gap intensifies. Its lower bound is worth 11,753 points; this is the very short-term objective that we identify. In the immediate term, an inflection movement below this resistance zone is anticipated. Under the aforementioned gap, it would be the 11,450 points which would then serve as a technical safeguard.

Conversely, a clear overshoot of 12,270 points would relaunch the initial upward movement. This would require validation by volumes.

FORECAST

In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of 12270.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a breakout of 11904.00 points would revive selling pressure.

The News Bulletin 247 board

Nasdaq Composite
Neutral
Resistance(s):
–
Medium(s):
–

CHART IN DAILY DATA

Graphic made from the software Prorealtime



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