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The CAC 40 drew on Friday, at the end of a relatively nervous week, a second doji of school, marker of indecision, in a market equation with multiple unknowns. A market that oscillates between the relief of immediately avoiding a phase of recession across the Atlantic, the resurgence of fears about American regional banks, and doubts about the quality of the Chinese economic recovery.
As a reminder, the doji is a candle without a body.
In terms of statistics, operators will not have appreciated the fairly sharp contraction in the American consumer confidence index (U-Mich), at 57.7 points in preliminary data, well below the target.
In the radius values, Scor jumped 9.43% to 25.75 euros, driven by quarterly results well above expectations. JCDecaux fell sharply (-3.79% to 18.30 euros) after publishing disappointing prospects for the second quarter. Orpea, for its part, dropped 2.8%, the operator of retirement homes having suffered a loss of more than 4 billion euros in 2022, weighed down by inflation and asset write-downs.
Investors also continue to follow the soap opera around the raising of the US debt ceiling, which is the subject of a bitter debate between Republicans and Democrats. “The temptation of each camp is to go to the edge of the abyss, hoping that the adversary will give in first. No one controls all the parameters of this game and an accident cannot be excluded”, judge the economists of Oddo BHF.
Investors also appreciate the resumption of diplomatic contacts between Beijing and Washington. The national security adviser to the American president, Jake Sullivan, met the chief of Chinese diplomacy, Wang Yi, Wednesday and Thursday in Vienna, after more than two months of cold.
“It can play on the margins. Given the latest economic statistics, China has every interest in a lull in relations with the United States,” said Christopher Dembik, director of macroeconomic research for Saxo Bank.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended a volatile week on Friday, with a negative closing session, like the Dow Jones (-0.03% to 33,300 points) or the Nasdaq Composite (-0.36% to 12,284 points). The S&P500, benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, lost 0.16% to 4,124 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0870. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $69.90.
To be followed in priority on the macroeconomic agenda this Monday, industrial production in the Euro Zone at 11:00 a.m., and the manufacturing index of the NY Fed (Empire State Index) at 2:30 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
Beware of the probable commitment of the three-color flagship index in a shoulder, head and shoulders pattern above a graphic base materialized by the bullish gap of March 30, below 7,235 points. We will watch like the milk on the fire, the continuation if necessary of this route to identify work scenarios. The breakout of 7,316 points would accelerate clearings towards the aforementioned level. In the immediate future, a continuation of a balancing of buying and selling forces in a nervous atmosphere is expected.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 7585.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 7316.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
The News Bulletin 247 board
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