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It should be noted in the preamble that despite the holiday nature of this Thursday, the Parisian market will remain open, under the usual conditions of timetables and quotation. Naturally, we will have to expect very discreet volumes, also tomorrow, for what is customary to call the Ascension Bridge.
Yesterday the CAC 40 ended a nervous session down slightly (-0.09% below 7,400 points), while the discussions between the American President J. Biden and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, McCarthy, did not have still not come up with a concrete, quantified and dated solution on raising the debt ceiling.
No agreement could be reached after a meeting on Tuesday evening. Another meeting must take place this week, to avoid a default of payment of the United States on June 1st. “Nevertheless, what emerges from this meeting is that it was positive, that a bipartisan agreement can still be reached to avoid a default, and that the negotiation process has improved with President Biden appointing officials to work directly” , explains Patrick O’Hare of Briefing.com, quoted by AFP.
In terms of statistics, no surprise to report on the final consumer price data in the Euro Zone for the month of April, at +5.6% in data core annualized. Nothing to report on the dynamics of housing starts & building permits in the United States, in the target.
As a reminder on Tuesday, there was a strong disappointment to report on the German ZEW, a barometer of investor sentiment which plunged from 4.1 to -10.7. Across the Atlantic, the disappointment in monthly retail sales (+0.4%), which fell short of expectations in April, combined with the yardstick of the catastrophic publication, at the end of last week, of the household confidence (U-Mich, preliminary data), questions the state of health of domestic consumption, the main engine of American wealth creation, structurally.
In the values department, Vallourec ended up 8.55% after publishing quarterly results well above expectations. Elior for its part collapsed by 22.8% after still suffering from inflation in the first half of its 2022-2023 financial year, which will end next September. The collective catering specialist has lowered its operating profitability target, now counting on the bottom of the range previously communicated, from 1.5% to 2%.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices closed in positive territory on Wednesday, like the Dow Jones (+1.24% to 33,420 points) or the Nasdaq Composite (+1.28% at 12,500 points). The S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 1.19% to 4,158 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0830. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $72.50.
To follow as a priority on the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits in the United States at 2:30 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
Beware of the probable commitment of the three-color flagship index in a shoulder, head and shoulders pattern above a graphic base materialized by the bullish gap of March 30, below 7,235 points. We will monitor like the milk on the fire, the continuation of this route, if necessary, to identify work scenarios. Breaking the 7,316 / 7,320 points would accelerate clearings towards the aforementioned level. In the immediate future, a continuation of a balancing of the buying and selling forces in a nervous atmosphere is expected, in particular with regard to the formation of the two large dojis drawn at the end of last week, and the red body of the candle of Monday 15 .
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 7585.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 7316.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
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I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
