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The CAC 40, the flagship tricolor index, managed to maintain a 0.64% gain at the close on Thursday, in declining volumes due to the absence of a large fringe of investors for Ascension Thursday, a public holiday. but not unemployed on the Paris Stock Exchange. The pre-opening suggests a calm start to the session, with investors showing, at this stage, confidence in the outcome of negotiations between Biden and the leader of the House of Representatives on raising the ceiling on the American public debt.
Public debt evaluated by the Treasury at $31,400 billion. “It’s the ceiling […] authorized to the Biden administration, beyond that, as already 78 times since 1960, all administrations stop and only restart if the ceiling is raised”, note the strategists of Crédit Mutuel AM. “For this, you need a positive vote of the two chambers (Senate and House of Representatives), yet they are both in the hands of the Republicans. The negotiation promises to be difficult and the suspense can last until the last minute (June 1). But in the end, everything will be fine.”
US President Joe Biden held a press conference during which he said he was “confident” about the resolution of this file. The leader of the Republicans in the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy also declared himself “optimistic about the ability to work together”.
In terms of statistics, the operators took note of the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, at 242,000 new units, illustrating the persistence of tensions on the job market across the Atlantic.
On the value side, the star of the day is called Trigano, which soared 13.32% to 131 euros, the highest since February 22, thanks to better than expected half-year results. Cyclical stocks made good progress with STMicroelectronics, which won 3.6%, Renault 2.9% and Saint-Gobain 2.4%.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended Thursday’s session in the green, like the Dow Jones (+0.34% to 33,535 points) or the Nasdaq Composite (+1 .51% to 12,688 points The S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.94% to 4,198 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0790. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $72.60.
To follow in priority on the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, the economic bulletin of the ECB at 10:00 am and a speech by J Powell, President of the Fed, at 5:00 pm.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
Beware of the probable commitment of the three-color flagship index in a shoulder, head and shoulders pattern above a graphic base materialized by the bullish gap of March 30, below 7,235 points. We will monitor like the milk on the fire, the continuation of this route, if necessary, to identify work scenarios.
Breaking the 7,316 / 7,320 points would accelerate clearings towards the aforementioned level. In the immediate future, a continuation of a balancing of the buying and selling forces in a nervous atmosphere is expected, in particular with regard to the formation of the two large dojis drawn at the end of last week, and the red body of the candle of Monday 15 .
In the immediate term, the relative momentum of the remarkable moving averages remains concerning. Only a clear overshoot, with sectoral federation, of 7,585 would generate an additional leg up.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 7585.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 7316.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
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