(News Bulletin 247) – The week begins in the same gloom as that observed before the weekend on the main European markets (-0.5% in London and Frankfurt, -0.4% in Paris), a poor Ifo index coming add to concerns for the prospects of the old continent.

This index of the business climate in Germany has indeed fallen from 91.5 in May to 88.5 in June, a greater drop than expected by economists, such as those of Capital Economics who anticipated an index of 91 for the month. in progress.

‘This fall in the index suggests that German GDP probably contracted for the third consecutive quarter in the second quarter’, warns the London office, which also expects ‘the economy to remain in recession throughout of 2023’.

‘The still too optimistic economic projections of many economists are likely to be further revised downwards, which is also true for the ECB’, we also react at Commerzbank to this publication.

Many other data are expected in the coming days in Europe, including the European Commission’s ESI indices, inflation in the euro zone as a quick estimate for June and even British GDP in the first quarter.

In the United States, operators should be attentive in particular to a final estimate of economic growth in the first quarter, then to household income and spending – accompanied by a strong PCE price index monitored by the Fed.

‘The situation in Russia will also be watched, after Wagner’s mutiny against power this weekend, which finally ended quickly, after the decision of the leader of the independent armed group’, we also underline at IG France.

In the news of values, Commerzbank fell by more than 2% in Frankfurt, after the announcement Friday evening of new provisions for risk of litigation on its Polish subsidiary mBank, and despite confirmation by the German establishment of its annual objectives.

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