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Reassured by the battery of American statistical indicators that emerged beyond expectations at the heart of the week, but scalded by years of restrictive monetary policy, operators are sailing on sight in a thick fog in the short term, with no prevailing wind to spin the maritime metaphor. The ACC rose 0.98% yesterday to 7,286 points, with the support of defensive records.
In Sintra, Portugal, where the annual Forum of the European Central Bank is held, Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell repeated at will the necessary pursuit of a firm monetary policy, which can concretely translate into a continuation of the rise rates before entering the plateau, to fight against runaway prices.
Central bankers do not intend to ease off on rate hikes intended to stem inflation. For the European Central Bank, underlying inflation does not show enough tangible signs of a decline to consider a pause in its monetary tightening. In the United States, the tone is somewhat similar. The US Federal Reserve, through its chairman, Jerome Powell, does not rule out two consecutive rate hikes. Especially since the latest indicators published in the United States will not push the American institution to show leniency in its monetary policy.
As a reminder, the overruns of consensus, Tuesday, on the American statistics – the agenda was full of them! – have been spectacularly soared, in particular for the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index, new home sales and durable goods orders. But it is above all the consumer confidence index (Conference Board), at 109.7, which gave balm to the heart of a financial community which does not see the end of the monetary restriction tunnel…
In the values department, Morgan Stanley began monitoring the Carrefour title (+3.01% to 17.28 euros) with a recommendation to “overweight”, the equivalent of “buying” from the American bank. EssilorLuxottica (+2.21%) and L’Oréal (+1.78% to 414.5 euros), among other defensive files, were sought.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main indices closed in scattered order, at levels close to balance, like the Dow Jones (-0.22% to 33,852 points) or the Nasdaq Composite (+0.27% to 13,591 points). The S&P500, benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, ended on a flat note (-0.04% to 4,376 points).
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0890. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $68.80.
On the agenda this Thursday, to follow in priority the final data of the American GDP in the 2nd quarter, as well as the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits at 2:30 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The decrease in successive high points (April 24, May 19, June 16) is now characterized.
We were monitoring the gap drawn on Thursday on Friday. It was preserved at the close, with in addition a close of the weekly candle on its low points. This further degrades the short-term configuration.
A passage in weekly view suggests the beginning of an unattractive chartist figure.
The 50-day moving average (in orange) is accelerating downward over this last part of the week.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 7410.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 7088.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
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