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Decidedly, the macroeconomic “sequence” on the American side this week will have translated a good resistance, stronger than anticipated, of the first economic power of the planet. After the consumer confidence index (Conference Board), durable goods orders, the Richmond Fed index, yesterday it was the turn of growth (PIBT2) to pleasantly surprise the financial community.
Q2 quarterly GDP in annualized data comes out at +2.0%, well above expectations. This figure, which resonates pleasantly in the ears of the markets, nevertheless militates for the risk of economic “overheating”, which the PCE prices today and the NFP report on employment on July 7 will confirm or invalidate. Be that as it may, the Chairman of the Fed, who has been very firm in his latest speeches (FOMC, parliamentary hearing, ECB annual forum), finds himself comforted in the orientation of his monetary policy.
THE big statistical event this Friday is the publication of PCE prices (for personal consumption expenditures), the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
As things stand, central bankers have no intention of slowing down rate hikes aimed at stemming inflation. For the European Central Bank, underlying inflation does not show enough tangible signs of a decline to consider a pause in its monetary tightening. In the United States, the tone is somewhat similar. The US Federal Reserve, through its chairman, Jerome Powell, does not rule out two consecutive rate hikes.
In terms of values, the car manufacturer Renault (+4.97%) raised its annual targets. On the other side of the charts, Casino Guichard (-32.27%) on historic lows collapsed after warning that the debt restructuring would not be without consequences for shareholders.
On the other side of the Atlantic, if the Nasdaq Composite remained stable, the Dow Jones managed to grab 0.80% to 34,122 points. The S&P500, the reference barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, eroded 0.45% to 4,396 points.
n update on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0890. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $68.80.
On the agenda this Thursday, to follow in priority the PCE prices at 2:30 p.m. Consumer prices in the Euro Zone will be revealed at 11:00 am.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The decrease in successive high points (April 24, May 19, June 16) is now characterized.
We were monitoring the gap drawn on Thursday on Friday. It was preserved at the close, with in addition a close of the weekly candle on its low points. This further degrades the short-term configuration.
A passage in weekly view suggests the beginning of an unattractive chartist figure.
The 50-day moving average (in orange) is accelerating downward over this last part of the week.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 7410.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 7088.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
The News Bulletin 247 board
Hourly data chart
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