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The CAC 40 index contracted by 0.94% to 7,191 points, accelerating its losses in the second part of the session with the benchmarks from Wall Street, itself cooled by the Minutes of the Fed, published the day before .
The traditional chronological account of the debates between the members of the Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC), through the points of disagreement and the tone used, revealed a level of concern about inflation. The report therefore militates for maintaining federal rates (Fed Funds) at high levels for many months, in the form of a plateau.
“Indeed, the monetary institution’s report indicates that ‘most participants continued to perceive significant upside risks to inflation, which could necessitate a further tightening of monetary policy'”, notes John Plassard by Mirabaud.
THE Treasuries 10 yrs were now flirting with 4.30%, the highest since November 2007.
Although CPIs have shown very encouraging signs with their recent momentum, the job market’s continued strength.
Christian Scherrmann, US DWS Economist, notes that going forward, “a slowdown in hiring is likely to be welcomed by central bankers, but for now, stubbornness in aggregate wage growth may be more important. .”
“While demand remains strong in sectors such as leisure, hospitality and healthcare, wages in these sectors have actually increased somewhat less than before. a heterogeneous set that supports both a soft landing scenario and a possible mild recession at some point.For the Fed, however, [le dernier rapport NFP] seems to support his orientation hawkishbut does not necessarily imply a further rise in September.
It was a question of employment just yesterday on the statistics side: new weekly jobless claims in the United States stood at 239,000, close to the expected figure (240,000) while the index of manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region went back into the green in August, at 12 against -10 expected and -13.5 the previous month.
As for values, tech suffered from the rise in bond rates, OVHCloud losing 4.2%, Dassault Systèmes 3.3%. Worldline, which lost 3.5%, was also weighed down by the plunge of its Dutch competitor Adyen, which collapsed 39% on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, after announcing half-year results well below expectations.
Only the defensive stocks Sanofi (+1.4%) and Carrefour (+1.1%) on the CAC 40 recorded slightly sharp increases, even if Société Générale (+0.3%) also progressed while Royal Bank of Canada raised its price target on the bank while maintaining its “sector performance” view.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices accentuated their weekly decline, like the Dow Jones, which lost an additional 0.84% ​​on Friday, and the Nasdaq Composite (-1.17%) on background of warming federal sovereign bond yields. The S&P500, benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, lost 0.77% to 4,370 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0870. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $80.50.
On the agenda this Friday, to follow in priority the final data of consumer prices in the Euro Zone for July, at 11:00 am.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
On Thursday August 10, the tricolor index came up against the upper limit of a diamond larger than the previous one, the validity of which was effectively tested on Friday August 11, and fully validated by the combination of a bearish engulfing candle at the beginning of week 33. High volatility is expected until the end of August, a month which does not deviate historically from a volatility trend. At this point, a neckline near 7,250 points, threatened yesterday, has been pushed into volumes, paving the way for a visit to the lower boundary of the flattened diamond represented on the chart.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is trading below the resistance at 7500.00 points.
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