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A little oxygen found on the Paris Stock Exchange, which started the week with a session in the green (+1.32% to 7,324 points), in volumes still thin at the end of August. Targeted stimulus measures in China will have catalyzed this renewed risk appetite, even within a flattened rhomb (diamond) congestion pattern that remains relevant.
These measures aim to revive the economy, in particular a halving of the “stamp duty”, a tax on stock market transactions, going from 0.1% to 0.05%. “Investors are reacting positively to China’s announced measures to reduce trading taxes and fees, as well as a new request for investment funds and banks, from the party, to buy the market, in order to support the stock market indices”, abounds Vincent Boy, market analyst for IG France.
Another announcement likely to reduce geopolitical fears and therefore support the market: China and the United States have decided to set up a working group to “seek solutions on trade and investment issues”, according to the text. of the US Department of Commerce. A first meeting is expected early next year.
The macroeconomic menu, starved yesterday, will become rich today with the consumer confidence index (Conference Board) and new job offers (JOLTS), the ADP survey on Wednesday, PCE prices on Thursday, and the federal monthly jobs report on Friday. These are all indicators that the Fed will follow closely to measure its impact on the trajectory of prices. Consider key data on employment, consumption and prices, three parts of a complex equation, interrelated…
“If […] the moderate slowdown in activity and prices is confirmed, then the tensions on long rates will cease, which will support the stock markets” advances Thomas Giudici, head of bond management at Auris Gestion. “However, it is advisable to be vigilant, because too disappointing data would make investors wonder about the possibility of a harder landing. From this precarious balance between slower growth and lower inflation stem the monetary policies of central banks for the coming months, and therefore the performance of asset classes by the end of the year.
In the values ​​department, the entire CAC 40 ended in the green, led by Teleperformance (+5.2%). Valneva climbed 2.4% after releasing positive adolescent safety data for its chikungunya vaccine candidate.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended the first session of the week in good spirits, like the Dow Jones (+0.62% to 34,559 points) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.84% ​​to 13,705 points). The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, climbed 0.63% to 4,433 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0820. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $80.20.
On the agenda this Tuesday, to follow as a priority across the Atlantic the consumer confidence index (Conference Board) and new job offers (JOLTS) at 4:00 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
From August 10 to 18, the tricolor flagship index melted from one terminal to the other of the vast flattened rhombus (diamond) which has concentrated its nervous oscillations since May 24, breaking the line of neckline of a bearish chart pattern at 7,250 points. A continuation of the oscillations within the diamond is envisaged. Any exit from the latter will give a directional direction provided that volumes, and a sectoral federation, are there… Signs of fatigue within this diamond are already perceptible. The bearish engulfing August 24, at the midline of the diamond, is one.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 7500.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 7084.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
The News Bulletin 247 board
Hourly data chart
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