(News Bulletin 247) – The Paris Stock Exchange is expected to continue its rebound on Wednesday morning, en route to a fourth session of increases in a row, before a session driven by several economic indicators.
Around 8:15 a.m., the ‘future’ contract on the CAC 40 index – expiring in September – gained 16 points at 7404 points, suggesting an opening close to 7400 points.
The Parisian market has gained 2.2% over the past three sessions, supported by the prospect of an imminent end to the cycle of rate hikes in a market which has temporarily put aside its fears linked to the slowdown in the global economy. .
‘To everyone’s surprise, the CAC 40 index came to break the first major resistance at 7305 points and reposition itself ideally for a new test on the long-term pivot threshold at 7360 points’, underline the chartists of Kiplink Finance.
According to the brokerage firm, the dual technical objective is to stay for some time in this zone of 7305/7330 points in order to transform this favorable momentum into a lasting upward trend.
‘The CAC 40 index has never been so close graphically to transform yet another passage above 7360 points synonymous with a potential return to its annual highs’, assures Kiplink.
For the record, the star index had reached a peak of 7581.2 points at the end of April.
The macroeconomic publication of the day will be the first estimate of inflation in Germany for the month of August, which the consensus sees falling to 6.4% over one year after +6.5% in July.
The focus of the week, however, remains the August employment statistics in the United States, which will be published on Friday, as well as their possible implications for the monetary policy of the Fed.
The ADP survey on employment in the private sector in the United States, which will be released this Wednesday at 2:15 p.m., could give a taste of this publication.
Another factor supporting the market, the return to calm on the bond compartment, whose sudden rise had been the source of the renewed nervousness of investors, is confirmed day by day.
Across the Atlantic, the yield on 10-year US government bonds is back towards 4.12%, a low of almost a month.
The 10-year German Bund, the euro zone’s benchmark rate, stabilizes at 2.51%, as recent weaker-than-expected economic data fuels the attractiveness of government bonds by complicating the ECB’s monetary tightening policy .
‘The fear remains that the European Central Bank (ECB) will tighten its monetary policy too much’, the Lombard Odier teams recently recalled.
For the Swiss private bank, the main threat to the outlook for the euro zone remains a ‘monetary policy accident’, as the ECB raised its benchmark rate from -0.5% to 3.75% in the space one year.
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