PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to rise on Friday at the opening, in a context of wait-and-see before the publication of crucial indicators on inflation in the euro zone and the United States, while comments and Encouraging data supported American sovereigns.

Futures contracts suggest an opening increase of 0.26% for the Parisian CAC 40, 0.26% for the FTSE in London, 0.4% for the Dax in Frankfurt, and 0.31% for the EuroStoxx 50 .

Inflation in the euro zone is expected at 09:00 GMT, and should decline compared to the previous month: the consensus expects a decline to 4.5% in September, compared to 5.2% in August, expectations reinforced Thursday by the publication inflation in Germany, which slowed faster than expected.

Across the Atlantic, PCE inflation, the indicator on which the Federal Reserve relies to monitor price dynamics, is expected to increase slightly, to 3.5% in September year-on-year compared to 3.2% in August. .

However, encouraging comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who explained Thursday that the American central bank could perhaps bring inflation back to its target without too significant an increase in unemployment, encouraged the markets.

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Fed, who spoke after the markets closed on Thursday, did not mention American monetary policy.

Finally, the macroeconomic indicators published Thursday relieved observers about the slowdown in the American economy: jobless claims increased last week, while growth since 2020 has been less vigorous than indicated in the first estimates, according to the revised GDP data.

The yield on the 10-year security thus stabilized around 4.6%, after soaring by 37 basis points (bp) in the wake of the Fed’s decision on September 20, bringing respite to risky assets.

A WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange ended higher on Thursday as investors weighed the latest economic data as rising Treasury yields paused before the release of US inflation figures on Friday.

The Dow Jones index gained 0.35%, or 116.07 points, to 33,666.34 points. The broader S&P-500 gained 25.19 points, or 0.59%, to 4,299.70 points. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 108.43 points (0.83%) to 13,201.28 points.

IN ASIA

Japanese markets fell under pressure from the transport and energy sectors. The Nikkei index lost 0.05% to 31,857.62 points but the broader Topix lost 0.92% to 2,323.98 points.

The maritime transport sector is the red lantern of the 33 sectors of the Nikkei, down 4.38%, followed by the oil and coal sector, down 2.92%.

Chinese markets are closed for a week, with the exception of Hong Kong indices, which are progressing with the easing of American yields. The Hong Kong Hang Seng index rose 2.75%.

CHANGES

The dollar is falling from its highest level in 11 months but is heading for its 11th consecutive week of gains as investors bet that the US economy will prove resilient to Fed rate hikes.

The dollar erodes by 0.29% against a basket of reference currencies, while the euro takes 0.21% to 1.0581 dollars, and the pound sterling 0.31% to 1.2235 dollars.

In Asia, the yen is stable at 149.06 yen per dollar, while the Australian dollar rises 0.69% to 0.6467 dollars.

RATE

US yields halt their advance and decline moderately thanks to technical factors, but selling pressure remains as investors seek to price in the higher rate scenario for longer.

The ten-year Treasury yield fell by 3 bps to 4.567%, while the two-year rate stood still at 5.0582%.

The German ten-year yield plunged 6.7 bp to 2.901%, while the two-year yield fell 4.7 bp to 3.251%.

OIL

Oil is hesitating, despite greater than expected transport demand in China, during a public holiday week, and a resilient American economy.

Brent fell 0.4% to $95 per barrel, with light American crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) remaining at $91.62.

(edited by Jean-Stéphane Brosse)

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