by Claude Chendjou
The main European stock markets are expected to rise slightly on Friday, in an attempt to rebound after the consolidation movement of the day before, following an overall week of improvement linked to the prospect of the end of the rise in interest rates of the major central banks.
According to the first available indications, the Parisian CAC 40 should gain 0.27% at the opening, the Dax in Frankfurt 0.28% and the FTSE 100 in London 0.26%. The EuroStoxx 50 index is expected to increase by 0.37%.
The market rally, before Thursday’s slight contraction, was fueled by the publication of indicators in Europe and the United States showing a decline in inflationary pressures and a confirmation of the soft landing of the American economy.
Today’s session could however be volatile, this Friday being that of the “three witches”, marked by the expiry of certain futures contracts.
Investors will also monitor the final figures for consumer prices in the euro zone and those for retail sales in Great Britain, which could provide new clues on the trajectory of rates and the evolution of the economy.
Even if the markets are still betting on a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) by April, followed in May by the American Federal Reserve (Fed), then in August by the Bank of England (BoE), the The restrictive tone still used by certain central bankers pushes investors to remain cautious.
ECB President Christine Lagarde, BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden and Fed Vice President Michael Barr are among the officials who will speak again this Friday.
A WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange ended mixed on Thursday, after a seesaw session, as Cisco and Walmart fell after communicating disappointing forecasts, while the decline in bond yields protected some high-growth stocks.
The Dow Jones index fell 0.13%, or 45.74 points, to 34,945.47 points.
The broader S&P-500 gained 5.36 points, or 0.12%, to 4,508.24 points.
The Nasdaq Composite advanced 9.84 points (0.07%) to 14,113.67 points.
The S&P-500 and the Nasdaq rebounded at the end of the session to finish in the green for a fifth consecutive day.
Stressing that Cisco (-9.8%) and Walmart (-8.1%) represent the “backbone” of their respective industries, Paul Nolte, strategist at Murphy & Sylvest, estimated that the weakness of the two groups “raises a few questions about the health of consumption and, perhaps, that of the technology sector.”
IN ASIA
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index ended with a gain of 0.48% to 33,585.2 points, while the broader Topix gained 0.95% to 2,391.05 points, the indices being supported by the words of the governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Kazuo Ueda said Friday that the central bank would “patiently” maintain its ultra-accommodative monetary policy, saying that achieving the objective of sustainable inflation at 2% is not yet in sight.
The MSCI index bringing together stocks from Asia and the Pacific (excluding Japan), which was at a two-month peak, lost 0.67%. However, at this stage it maintains a gain of 2.7% over the whole week, its best weekly performance since July.
In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite fell by 0.04% and the CSI 300 dropped 0.22% while Alibaba fell by 9.71% after giving up listing its cloud computing division.
A semblance of relaxation in Sino-American and Sino-Japanese relations allows indices in Asia to limit their losses. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pledged Thursday evening to pursue mutually beneficial relations, while the day before Xi Jinping and his American counterpart Joe Biden agreed to restore military communications.
VALUES TO FOLLOW IN EUROPE:
CHANGES
The dollar is heading towards its biggest weekly decline in months against the euro, the yen and the franc on Friday, with currency traders selling the greenback in anticipation of a drop in interest rates in the United States by almost 100 basis points next year.
Against a basket of reference currencies, the American currency fell by 0.01%, while against the euro, it declined by 0.01%, to 1.0851 dollars.
Over the week as a whole, the dollar is currently down 1.6% against the Swiss franc and against the euro, to a low since mid-July.
The pound sterling stands at 1.2416 dollars (+0.08%).
RATE
On the bond market, the yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds rose by around one basis point, to 4.4569%, but lost almost 18 points over the week as a whole, barely a month later. having reached a peak at 5.02%. The two-year rate was practically stable on Friday, at 4.8515%, but showed a decline of 21 points over the past week, its biggest weekly drop since March.
OIL
The oil market, up slightly on Friday, is nevertheless heading towards a fourth week in a row in the red after falling by around 5%, to a four-month low, in a context of concerns about global demand.
Brent gained 0.01% on Friday to $77.41 per barrel and American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) gained 0.04% to $72.93.
Both oil benchmarks have lost about a sixth of their value over the past four weeks.
*first estimate
(Writing by Claude Chendjou, edited by Kate Entringer)
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I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
