PARIS (Reuters) – Wall Street is expected to be mixed at the opening on Monday, while European stock markets hesitate at mid-session, the markets digesting a burst of encouraging data for the trajectory of rates published the previous week.

Futures on New York indices suggest a hesitant opening on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones and Standard & Poor’s 500 not showing any marked direction, while the Nasdaq is up 0.1%.

In Paris, the CAC 40 advanced 0.17% to 7,246.38 points around 11:56 GMT, compared to a decline of 0.17% for the FTSE in London, and 0.21% for the Dax in Frankfurt.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index, the EuroStoxx 50 and the Stoxx 600 do not show a marked direction.

The past week was rich in publication of indicators and results, and investors are digesting the numerous data on Monday.

Several indicators have in fact confirmed the slowdown in activity, pressure on prices and tensions in the labor market across the Atlantic, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve has finished raising rates.

However, several members of the Fed’s board of governors insisted that the fight against inflation was not over and that rates must remain in restrictive territory to ensure that it is won.

The week will be marked by the publication of the minutes of the last Fed meeting on Tuesday and the PMI activity indices in Europe on Thursday.

These should confirm that activity continues to deteriorate: producer prices in Germany published on Monday are down 11%, encouraging investors to bet that the European Central Bank has also finished with rate increases, and that it will ease its monetary policy by 100 basis points by the end of 2024.

Uncertainty about the economic trajectory nevertheless worries the stock markets, which are no longer benefiting from the significant easing of yields that took place the previous week.

VALUES TO FOLLOW IN WALL STREET

Microsoft announced that Sam Altman, former director of OpenAI, and Greg Brockman, co-founder of the company, will join the group to lead a new artificial intelligence research team.

VALUES TO FOLLOW IN EUROPE

Worldline loses 1.05% and is volatile after Goldman Sachs lowered its recommendation on the payment solutions specialist from “buy” to “neutral”, with the intermediary saying “company-specific issues” weigh on its growth prospects.

Bayer collapses 19.13%, at the bottom of the Stoxx 600, after announcing on Sunday the abandonment of a large phase III clinical trial involving a new anticoagulant drug, asundexian, due to its lack of efficiency. The group takes the health sector with it (-0.89%).

Julius Baer fell 12.47%, among the worst performances on the Stoxx 600, after lowering its profit forecasts, the group being forced to increase its provisions linked to non-performing loans.

RATE

Yields are up slightly as markets digest restrictive comments from several US monetary policymakers on Friday. Furthermore, peripheral rate spreads tightened after the decisions of the rating agency Moody’s on Italy and Portugal.

The yield on the ten-year Treasury rose 3.1 bps to 4.4725%, while the two-year was stable at 4.9108%.

The yield on the German ten-year rate climbs 2.6 bp to 2.615%, that of the two-year rate 3 bp to 2.993%.

CHANGES

The dollar fell to a two-month low as investors believed the Federal Reserve was done with rate hikes.

The dollar fell 0.29% against a basket of reference currencies, the euro rose 0.13% to 1.0921 dollars and reached its highest since August, and the pound sterling rose 0.05% to 1 .2467 dollars.

OIL

Crude is rising as markets anticipate further OPEC production cuts after three sources told Reuters the producers group plans to raise the issue at its next meeting.

Brent rose 1.53% to $81.84 per barrel, American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) rose 1.48% to $77.01.

NO MORE MAJOR ECONOMIC INDICATOR ON THE AGENDA FOR NOVEMBER 20

(Written by Corentin Chappron, edited by Kate Entringer)

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