(Read 7:00 p.m. GMT for the Fed meeting in §11)
(Reuters) – Consumer prices in the United States rebounded over a month in November, show official statistics published on Tuesday.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew 0.1% last month after remaining stable in October, the Labor Department announced. Over one year, it stands at 3.1%, after a gain of 3.2% in October.
Economists polled by Reuters on average forecast month-on-month stagnation for November and growth at an annual rate of 3.1%.
The underlying CPI index, which excludes the volatile prices of energy and food products, for its part reached 0.3% over one month, in line with the consensus, against 0.2% in October.
An unexpected rebound in the price of used cars and trucks contributed to the rise in core inflation in November.
Over one year, the underlying CPI index increased by 4.0% as in October, in line with the consensus.
Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and could remain so under pressure from high rents.
The increase in rental prices could nevertheless slow down from next year, with the vacancy rate for rented accommodation reaching its highest level in two years in the third quarter, while residential construction remains significant.
“The rapid disinflation that took place from September 2022 to today seems to be entering a period of stagnation (…): 4% core inflation is still too much inflation” for the central bank, summarizes Florian Ielpo, head of research at Lombard Odier IM.
“Let’s not count too much on an accommodating Fed on Wednesday.”
The central bank will announce its next rate decision on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT.
Added to the CPI indicator is the latest report on employment in the United States published last Friday, which showed that job creation accelerated in November and that the unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, against 3.9% in October.
These two indicators could keep rate cuts away from the central bank: the markets are counting on rates remaining at their current levels.
“(Fed Chairman Jerome) Powell will insist that rate cuts are not yet considered, but he will not strongly oppose market expectations,” said Veronica Clark, economist at Citigroup.
(Written by Lucia Mutikani, Corentin Chappron, edited by Blandine Hénault and Kate Entringer)
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