CAC 40: The Parisian market turns the page on 2023 in excellent spirits

(News Bulletin 247) – This article, with open access, is produced by the stock market analysis and strategy research team at News Bulletin 247. To ensure you don’t miss any opportunities, consult all the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our Privileges area.

The News Bulletin 247 teams wish all of its readers and subscribers an excellent 2024 stock market year.

The CAC 40 ended the exceptional 2023 vintage on a sluggish session in terms of volumes, due to the absence of a large group of operators during this period of truce for confectioners. But the close was symbolically in the green (+0.11% to 7,543 points).

The annual balance sheet, now known (+16.52%), owes a lot to the end-of-year rally, fueled by the increasingly clear prospects of seeing the major central banks on both sides of the Atlantic begin their monetary shift. Particularly on the Fed side, the chances of seeing federal rates lower in March have exploded after the publication of a downward revision of GDP in Q2 and a very clear slowdown in inflation in the sense of PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure in its assessment of price dynamics.

Rather than mentioning the daily differences in the values ​​of the CAC 40 over the not very significant New Year’s Eve session, we suggest taking note of the 2023 list of tenants of the flagship index, the standard deviation of which is relatively large.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices experienced a flat last session of the year, like the Dow Jones (-0.05% on Friday, +13.70% on the year), or the Nasdaq Composite (-0.56%, +43.42% over the year). The S&P 500 remained perfectly stable on Friday at 4,769 points, for the last session of a prosperous year (+24.23%).

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8:00 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.1030. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $72.90.

On the agenda this Tuesday, the manufacturing PMIs in final data for the month of December. Synthetic data for the entire Euro Zone will be revealed at 10:00 a.m., as will the M3 money supply in the monetary union.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The creation of new zeniths on the CAC, the high point of the autumn rally, will have crowned a remarkable federation movement. In the immediate future, it is a healthy wedge consolidation (wedge) which has emerged, since the slowdown of December 14, remarkable in terms of the size of the red body of the corresponding candle. An exit from the top, subject to an acceleration in transaction volumes, would announce the formation of a final bullish leg before a long breather in prices.

FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bullish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is above support at 7406.00 points.

Hourly graph

Daily Data Chart