(News Bulletin 247) – The Parisian market is attempting a rebound after returning to one-month lows on Wednesday evening, undermined by uncertainties over the timing of rate cuts and the poor shape of its luxury sector. The CAC 40 rose 0.4% on Thursday at mid-session.

The Paris Stock Exchange is trying to come to its senses after showing, on Wednesday evening, its heaviest closing decline since September 21 and ending its run at a one-month low.

The CAC 40 increased by 0.39% to 7,440.55 points, but at this stage displays a negative performance (-1.4%) over the entire first week of 2024.

A busy schedule

After being extremely confident about the prospect of a more accommodating monetary policy at the end of 2023, the markets are returning to more realism about the timetable for rate cuts. Especially on the first. The Federal Reserve’s minutes, published after the European markets closed, set the record straight a little. They showed that its members are overall much less confident than the market in the scenario of a first monetary easing from March.

“The record shows that the cuts may not be as drastic as many think and that rates could remain high for some time. While this is a good sign for the future of the economy, it could curb the animal spirit that we have seen in the markets lately,” notes Callie Cox, US markets analyst at eToro.

Quoted by AFP Jochen Stanzl of CMC Market argues that investors find “no indication of a reduction in key rates already announced in March”.

Investors learned in the morning of a contraction in private sector activity in the euro zone in December, according to the latest S&P Global purchasing managers survey. The HCOB composite PMI index stood at 47.6 points in December, just like the previous month, after an initial estimate of 47 points.

Still in the euro zone, inflation figures in the two major European economies are also on today’s agenda. The markets have already taken note of the figures in France, with inflation increasing slightly to 3.7% year-on-year in December, after 3.5% in November, due to the “acceleration” of energy prices. and services, according to provisional data published Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics (Insee). The figures for Germany will be published this Thursday at 2:00 p.m. before those for the entire euro zone on Friday.

If price data feeds the agenda in Europe, on the other side of the Atlantic, it is employment data that will punctuate the afternoon. The ADP survey on American private employment is expected before the opening of Wall Street, as are the essential weekly registrations for unemployment benefits. Valuable benchmarks before the statistical high point which will be reached tomorrow with the publication of the NFP (Non Farm Payrolls) report, the monthly federal report on private employment.

Nexity supported by an analyst note

Geopolitical tensions are also in the background, particularly in the Middle East with the liquidation in Lebanon of the number two of the political branch of Hamas, an attack in Iran and new attacks in the Red Sea. The closure of a major oil field in Libya adds additional pressure to the supply of black gold. A barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in March, rose another 0.8% to $78.86. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for delivery in February, rose 1% to $73.41.

The rebound in black gold prices benefits Totalenergies (+1.4%) which will launch an “evaluation mission” on controversial oil projects in Uganda and Tanzania, EACOP and Tilenga. The French oil giant announced that it had finalized the sale of its service stations in Europe to the Canadian group Couche-Tard.

Alstom is regaining some color (+2.9%) after losing almost 10% the day before, in reaction to a negative analyst note from Barclays. The railway equipment manufacturer announced the signing of a contract in Saudi Arabia for its experimental tram project.

Nexity gains more than 2.7%, supported by a positive rating from TP ICAP Midcap which appreciates the real estate developer’s latest strategic initiative.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro recovered a few fractions and gained 0.3% against the dollar to 1.0956 dollars.