CAC 40: Caution before a busy weekend

(News Bulletin 247) – Investors are turning their eyes away from the macroeconomy as results publications accelerate. Indeed, since Christine Lagarde’s remarks, evoking the start of a rate cut from next summer and a drop in expectations of a rate cut from the American central bank from March, investors have rely on company results. Less than 50% of investors now believe in a rate cut by the Fed next March. The month of May is now on everyone’s minds. There will be plenty of macroeconomic information today with a battery of PMIs in Europe and the United States. However, it is the US growth and inflation data published on Thursday and Friday which will be the real catalysts. Among the publications to watch today, we will follow SAP, in Germany, the first weighting of the Dax published its results and announced a restructuring plan of 2 billion euros. ASML, an emblematic semiconductor file in Europe, announced net profit and turnover above expectations in the fourth quarter. In France, we will closely follow Alstom, which confirms its annual objectives but is still considering a capital increase. The group has also confirmed its plan to sell assets of 500 million to 1 billion euros and the elimination of around 1,500 positions. The market welcomes a positive catalyst for the Parisian luxury segment, with the publication of Interparfums. The group has raised its operating margin target for 2023.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The index is poorly oriented with red and large candles suggesting bearish pressure. The index failed to maintain 7,400 points at the close. We will therefore aim for a return to 7200 points initially. Any bounce off the 20-period daily moving average offers a selling opportunity.

FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is below resistance at 7406.00 points.

Hourly graph

Daily Data Chart