CAC 40: Total treats its shareholders, coupon up 7.1%

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The CAC 40 index increased on Tuesday by 0.65% to 7,638 points, supported by one of its flagship values, namely Totalenergies which rebounded by 1.8% in the wake of its British comparable BP, author of ‘an excellent copy for its annual results. The group has just published its excellent 2024 copy this morning. Over the whole of 2023, the group led and chaired by Patrick Pouyanné generated a net profit of 21.38 billion dollars, or nearly 20 billion euros. This is THE title to watch at the opening.

Another point of support for the Parisian market yesterday, China: Chinese President Xi must discuss with Chinese regulators the recent rout of local markets, according to information from Bloomberg. This gave a boost to the CSI 300, an index which brings together the 300 largest capitalizations from the Shenzhen and Shanghai markets, with an increase of 3.5%. For Deutsche Bank this information demonstrates the “seriousness of the situation”. Since the start of the year, the Chinese markets have been in total agony, with the CSI 300 losing 3.5% over the whole of 2024 and 19% over one year.

In terms of statistics, there is little to eat this Tuesday. Note slightly disappointing retail sales in the Euro Zone in January (-1.1%), below target.

On the value side, in the wake of BP, Total, as we have seen, has taken on colors (+1.82%), just like Rubis (+1.30%), and Maurel & Prom (+2.33%). ). Vallourec (+0.70%) remained much more timid, consolidating the reception of its quarterly reports on February 2.

On the other side of the Atlantic, dealing with an American 10-year yield well above 4%, the main equity indices peaked on Tuesday, like the Dow Jones (+0.37%) and the Nasdaq. Composite (+0.07%). The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, managed to gain 0.23%.

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0770. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $73.30.

On the agenda this Wednesday, to follow as a priority the French trade balance at 8:45 a.m., as well as oil stocks across the Atlantic at 4:30 p.m.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The bevel (wedge) which had predominated until then was broken in its momentum by the formation of a large gap and an increase in gains during the session itself on Friday January 26. A major challenge now awaits the CAC: the creation of a series of absolute records. To do this, the participation of the luxury and spirits sectors alone would be insufficient.

In the immediate future, taking a breather from the lessons is the preferred option during this last part of the week. With a close eye on the stocks that have climbed the most since mid-January. (LVMH, Hermès, Teleperformance, CapGemini, Safran and Publicis).

A first divergence between price and RSI, between the last two high points (14/12 and 31/01) becomes clear.

FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 7695.00 points would revive the buying tension. While a break of 7406.00 points would restart the selling pressure.

Hourly graph

Daily Data Chart