CAC 40: The S&P 500 conquers 5,000 points, the CAC is eyeing 8,000

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The CAC 40 (-0.24% to 7,647 points) showed some legitimate signs of fatigue at the end of last week, in very rich and dense news on the front of the annual publications of large groups, and with the approach of major statistics, particularly on the American inflation front. The various consumer price indices will be published tomorrow.

“Equity markets are making little progress in the United States and barely in Europe against the backdrop of a mixed results season. The technology sector is regaining leadership on both sides of the Atlantic.” observes Jeanne Asseraf-Bitton, Head of Research and Strategy at BFT IM, who adds that “sentiment is improving on China as the New Year approaches and Chinese values ​​are regaining ground.”

In detail on the values ​​side, L’Oréal particularly suffered this Friday, losing 7.6%. The cosmetics group published growth significantly below expectations over the last three months of 2023, weighed down by China, where sales in airports and train stations are weighed down by the fight against the gray market.

Conversely, Hermès gained 4.8% after publishing growth of 17.5% on a comparable basis in the fourth quarter, significantly higher than the figure of 14% expected by the consensus. The saddler once again takes on the role of best luxury student in terms of growth.

The hit of the day, however, is from Ubisoft (+13.8%) which defied predictions by publishing revenues higher than expectations and above all by confirming its prospects, while the market was very clearly expecting a lowering of its objectives.

Kering gained 0.9% benefiting from an increase in purchasing advice from UBS, the Swiss bank judging that the worst has passed through the parent company of Gucci. She also considers that the recovery of the Italian brand has chances of success, seeing signs of better dynamics.

Conversely, UBS went from “buy” to “neutral” on BNP Paribas which lost 2%. “BNP is cheap in absolute terms, but we believe it is too dependent on the growth of CIB (the corporate and investment bank, Editor’s note) to achieve its return on tangible equity (ROTE) objective,” advances the Swiss bank. The bank’s shares fell 9.21% on February 1 after the publication of its quarterly report. In the same sector, Crédit Agricole (-1.07%) and Société Générale (-1.20%) were also penalized.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended in mixed order due to a very clear performance gap between banking and technology groups. If the Dow Jones contracted by 0.14% to 38,671 points, the Nasdaq Composite managed to gain 1.25% to 15,990 points. The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.57% to 5,026 points, above the highly symbolic threshold of 5,000 points.

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8:00 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0790. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $76.50.

On the agenda this Monday, some speeches from members of the Fed. Note that the Chinese and Japanese markets remained closed due to a public holiday.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The bevel (wedge) which had predominated until then was broken in its momentum by the formation of a large gap and an increase in gains during the session itself on Friday January 26. A major challenge now awaits the CAC: the creation of a series of absolute records. To do this, the participation of the luxury and spirits sectors alone would be insufficient.

In the immediate future, taking a breather from the lessons is the preferred option during this last part of the week. With a close eye on the stocks that have climbed the most since mid-January. (LVMH, Hermès, Teleperformance, CapGemini, Safran and Publicis).

A first divergence between price and RSI, between the last two high points (14/12 and 31/01) becomes clear.

Furthermore, a resistance zone is gradually being built on the historic highs, in the form of a double top.

FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 7695.00 points would revive the buying tension. While a break of 7406.00 points would restart the selling pressure.

Hourly graph

Daily Data Chart