(News Bulletin 247) – This article, with open access, is produced by the stock market analysis and strategy research team at News Bulletin 247. To ensure you don’t miss any opportunities, consult all the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our Privileges area.
The Parisian market remained circumspect for a long time after the publication of PCE (personal consumption expenditures) prices, the Fed’s favorite barometer in its assessment of inflation. This statistical highlight of the week came out in line with expectations, corroborating the idea of a slight jump in inflation, part of an underlying dynamic of a return to “normal”. In any case, the stated objective of 2% is clearly not a straight path, and the Fed will have to be patient.
These prices therefore increased at a monthly rate of 0.4% in January, compared to 0.2% in December.
“The level of 2% to be reached is complicated and uncertain” for Emmanuel Auboyneau, Amplegest partner. “In addition to a possible rise in raw materials boosted by economic growth, it is above all wages which are the key variable. After a lull of several months, they have recently resumed the upward trend, which is consistent with the strength of the job market. Furthermore, rents which constitute 30% of the price index have stabilized but remain subject to the structural shortage of housing in the United States.
The CME’s FedWatch tool puts the probability of a rate cut on May 1 at the end of the FOMC at 25.8%.
M Auboyneau remains convinced “that 2024 will be the year when the rate cut begins, but in a moderate way and only from the second half of the year.”
On the values side, it was mainly the groups outside the CAC 40 which marked the session, with numerous stock market punishments. Air France-KLM dropped 8.6% after publishing results below expectations for the fourth quarter, suffering from the comparison with its British competitor IAG which on the contrary delivered a better copy than expected, according to UBS. SMCP fell 9.8% after delivering its results for the 2023 financial year but without communicating a target for 2024. Nexity plunged 20% as the company saw its 2023 results hit hard by the financial crisis. residential real estate. Euroapi collapsed 43.3% after delivering an outlook well below expectations, due to an expected drop in sales to its former parent company Sanofi.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices finished in the green, timidly for the Dow Jones (+0.12%) and more frankly for the Nasdaq Composite (+0.90%). The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.52% to 5,096 points.
An update on other risky asset classes: around 8 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0810. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $78.90.
On the agenda this Friday, to follow the industrial PMIs in the Euro Zone in final data for February at 10:00 a.m., the final CPI data in the Euro Zone for February at 11:00 a.m. and across the Atlantic, the manufacturing ISM and consumer confidence (U -Mich) at 4:00 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The index crossed 7,700 points on gap and entered an unexplored navigation zone between 7,700 and the symbolic threshold of 8,000 points. The oscillatory RSI (relative strength index) is recovering, suggesting a final bullish surge before consolidation that can be broken down into several legs. We will carefully monitor the possible formation of a gap of shortness of breath or exhaustion, in the next sessions, beyond 8,000 psychological points. Ultimately, breathing towards the orange trend line (mm50d) is the preferred option.
FORECAST
Considering the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that crossing 8000.00 points would revive the buying tension. While a break of 7700.00 points would restart the selling pressure.
News Bulletin 247 advice
Hourly graph
Daily Data Chart
I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
