by Claude Chendjou

PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to rise on Tuesday before the publication of monthly consumer price figures in the United States which should, in the eyes of investors, confirm the ebbing of inflationary pressures, which would strengthen the prospect of an upcoming reduction in key rates.

According to the first available indications, the Parisian CAC 40 should gain 0.56% at the opening and beat its record of 8,048 points reached on March 8. The Dax in Frankfurt could advance by 0.46%, while the FTSE 100 in London should gain 0.91%. The EuroStoxx 50 index is expected to increase by 0.49%.

The new technology sector should fuel market optimism after the solid quarterly results of Oracle, whose stock jumped 12% after-hours on Wall Street. The database specialist has also promised a joint announcement this week with Nvidia, the chip and artificial intelligence giant, a theme that has been driving the markets for months.

On the macroeconomic side, the consumer price index (CPI) in the United States will be published at 12:30 GMT and the Reuters consensus forecasts stagnation over one year in February at 3.1% after an increase of the same magnitude in January. “Core” CPI inflation, which excludes volatile elements, could decelerate to 3.7% on an annual basis after 3.9% in January.

This statistic, even if it is not the most followed by the American Federal Reserve (Fed), could support the scenario of a rate cut in June of 25 basis points, the probability of such a decision currently being 70%.

In the eurozone, where futures also show a possibility of a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in June, Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, confirmed a slowdown in inflation to 2.7% year-on-year in February, a figure in line with expectations.

A WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange ended in mixed order on Monday, the markets having opted for profit taking after the recent records on the indices and before the publication of consumer prices.

The Dow Jones index gained 0.12%, or 46.97 points, to 38,769.66 points.

The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 5.75 points, or 0.11% to 5,117.94 points.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 65.84 points (0.41%) to 16,019.274.

In terms of values, Boeing’s action lost 3% after Alaska Airlines declared on Saturday that it was collaborating with the investigation by the US Department of Justice into the incident relating to the loss of a blocked door on a 737 MAX. of the aircraft manufacturer.

Semiconductor maker stocks continued their declines: Nvidia fell 2%, Advances Micro Devices lost 4.3% and Broadcom fell 1.2%.

IN ASIA

On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei fell by 0.06% to 38,797.51 points, against a backdrop of the firmness of the yen and profit-taking, the index having gained 16% since the start of the year. The broader Topix lost 0.36% to 2,657.24 points.

Heavyweights like Tokyo Electron and SoftBank Group fell 1.72% and 0.66% respectively.

The MSCI index bringing together stocks from Asia and the Pacific (excluding Japan) rose 0.80%, to a seven-month high, thanks in particular to the Hang Seng index (+2.91%) in Hong Kong.

In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite fell 0.41%, while the CSI 300 advanced 0.23%.

CHANGES

The yen is at 147.35 per dollar while futures contracts now indicate with a 50% probability that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will exit negative rates at its meeting on March 18 and 19, even although some observers still believe that we may have to wait until the meeting on April 26.

The dollar nibbles 0.02% against a basket of reference currencies, after

The euro is trading at $1.0934 (+0.07%) and the pound sterling is trading at $1.2803 (-0.07%).

RATE

The yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds is stable, at 4.0963%, like the day before, after having declined for four sessions in a row.

The yield on the German Bund of the same maturity appears at 2.3%, also practically stable, after a gain of three basis points on Monday.

OIL

Oil prices are rising slightly with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East but gains are limited by the prospect of weaker demand and increasing supply from producers outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ( OPEC).

Brent rose 0.49% to $82.61 per barrel and American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) rose 0.41% to $78.25.

(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Blandine Hénault)

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