CAC 40: Warm under the summits while waiting for PCE prices

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With the support of Kering (+3.15%), which has regained (a little) color after its warning on first quarter sales, and BNP-Paribas, supported by Goldman Sachs, the CAC 40 closed in the green (+0.41%), while remaining below its recent absolute records. Still impressive resistance to profit-taking temptations at this stage.

The macroeconomic agenda finally expanded a little this Tuesday. Among the indicators published, we will cite not orders for durable goods, nor the Case Schiller real estate index due to their proximity to the consensus, but the consumer confidence index (Conference Board), stable at 104.7 then that the financial community aimed much higher. The rest of the week will be marked by the publication of new GDP data on Thursday and, above all, PCE prices, the Fed’s favorite barometer, on Friday.

Concerning American growth, “there is almost no doubt that the GDP of the United States will continue to expand during the first half of 2024. We also estimate that American activity should grow in 2024 at a rapid pace. close to its potential, in other words in a range between 1.8% and 2.0%”, for Mabrouk Chetouane, Head of Global Market Strategy at Natixis Investment Managers.

To be complete on the value side, Rubis gained 12.5% ​​while Oddo BHF moved to “outperform” on the stock following the entry into the capital of Vincent Bolloré’s group, which sends a signal positive. Atos, for its part, finished in the green (+0.7%) after announcing the opening of a conciliation procedure with its creditors to lead to a debt restructuring procedure which promises to be cumbersome. Micropole soared by 45% while the company was the subject of a public takeover offer from the investment company Miramar.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended Tuesday’s session in the red, like the Dow Jones (-0.08%) but especially the Nasdaq Composite (-0.42%). ) before tomorrow’s inflation figures.

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0830. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $80.60.

On the agenda this Wednesday, to follow as a priority crude stocks across the Atlantic at 3:30 p.m.

Let us continue to point out that since Monday, Wall Street opens at 2:30 p.m. (Paris time), and not 3:30 p.m., quite simply because the East Coast of the United States has already switched to summer time, and we have not yet. The big statistical meetings, often scheduled for 2:30 p.m., are therefore scheduled in the interval at 1:30 p.m.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

Thanks to the crossing volumes, the bullish extension since Tuesday and the sectoral federation, we can shift the 8,000 psychological points into support, against which in the long term, a pullback (graphic rejection of confirmation) is not excluded. Now is the time to take a breather from the lessons. The CAC index has traced, in contact with the upper Bollinger band, two candles where the low points, the opening level and the closing level merge. And this before starting a slow decline towards the lower part of an ascending channel (in black) on the daily chart.

FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 8220.00 points would revive the buying tension. While a break of 8000.00 points would restart the selling pressure.

Hourly graph

Daily Data Chart