by Claude Chendjou

PARIS (Reuters) – Wall Street is expected to be in disarray on Tuesday at the opening, while the European stock markets fall slightly halfway through, the session being undecided against a backdrop of questions about the inflation outlook in Europe and the States -United.

Futures on New York indices signal a Wall Street opening down 0.14% for the Dow Jones, but an increase of 0.08% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 and 0.23% for the Nasdaq at The result of a long weekend due to “Memorial Day”.

In Paris, around 10:40 GMT, the CAC 40 lost 0.55% to 8,087.61 points, penalized by the poor performance of new technologies, notably that of Capgemini (-1.21%) and Dassault Systèmes (-1. 16%). In Frankfurt, the Dax lost 0.01%, the index limiting its losses thanks to an indicator showing that wholesale prices in Germany fell by 1.8% in April over one year. In London, the FTSE fell by 0.29% after three days of closing.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index fell by 0.20%, the eurozone’s EuroStoxx 50 by 0.18% and the Stoxx 600 by 0.19%.

Trading is without much conviction as investors await the release of monthly inflation data on Friday from both sides of the Atlantic, statistics that could influence the future trajectory of key rates. The Reuters consensus forecasts a slight acceleration in consumer prices in May to 2.5% year-on-year in the euro zone and a PCE price index in the United States stable at 2.7% year-on-year in April.

Consumer inflation expectations in the euro zone fell in April to 2.9%, their lowest level since September 2021, compared to 3.0% in March, according to a survey by the European Central Bank ( ECB).

On Monday, several ECB officials, including Philip Lane and François Villeroy de Galhau, spoke of key rate reductions in the euro zone, while calling for caution.

“It is very likely that the ECB will reduce its interest rates in June. The Fed is not yet ready,” writes Rainer Singer, analyst at Erste Group, in a note.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Tuesday that the U.S. central bank must wait until it sees significant progress on inflation before cutting rates, while the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel stressed that asset purchases may have limited the transmission of monetary policy.

Other central bankers, such as Klaas Knot of the ECB and Lisa Cook of the Fed, are due to speak today.

VALUES TO FOLLOW ON WALL STREET

Apple takes 1.7% in pre-market trading. According to Reuters calculations based on industrial data, the Apple group saw its iPhone sales in China jump 52% ​​in April year-on-year.

Nvidia advanced 3.1% in pre-market trading on Tuesday after a gain of 2.5% on Friday and 9.3% on Thursday following the publication of its results and outlook.

VALUES IN EUROPE

Atos advances 1.25% while Bruno Le Maire, the French Minister of Finance, insisted on Tuesday that the group’s nuclear subsidiary would remain under state control.

Aramis Group climbs 10.49%, the specialist in online used car sales having raised its financial forecasts for the whole year after reporting organic growth in its turnover of 16.7% in the first half.

Titles like Planisware (+3.66%), Ocado (+8.90%) and Symrise (+1.56%) benefit from a change in recommendation.

RATE The yield on the ten-year German Bund, the benchmark for the euro zone, is rising again, taking more than two basis points, to 2.569%, after having lost almost four the day before.

That of ten-year US Treasury bonds fell by around one point, to 4.465%, while the bond market in the United States was closed on Monday.

CHANGES

The dollar lost -0.13% against a basket of reference currencies and is heading towards a loss of 1.7% over the entire month, the first on a monthly basis since the start of the year.

The euro, up 0.17%, is trading at $1.0877, taking advantage of the expected gap in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed.

“A context in which the Federal Reserve can start to reduce its rates this year, even in December, is consistent with further weakness in the dollar,” underlines Athanasios Vamvakidis, head of foreign exchange at BofA.

According to the Fedwatch barometer, the probability of a Fed rate cut is fully integrated for the month of December, while a reduction in November is estimated at only 80% and in September at 60%.

OIL

Oil prices are rising, with the prospect of a status quo on crude production at the June 2 OPEC+ meeting and expectations of strong fuel demand in the United States during the summer period offsetting related concerns. to the Fed’s interest rates.

Brent gained 0.25% to $83.31 per barrel and American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) gained 1.63% to $78.99.

(Writing by Claude Chendjou, edited by Kate Entringer)

Copyright © 2024 Thomson Reuters