Nasdaq Composite: Slight decline in NVidia, the index is breathing

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The Nasdaq Composite index, the flagship index of technology stocks on the American stock market, remained very firm on Friday, close to the zeniths. The index, however, continues a very slight downward movement (-0.18% to 17,689 points), fueled in particular by the star of the rating (NVidia) which fell by 3.22% on Friday, after a decline of 3 .54% the day before. A “straw”, naturally compared to the initial progress of the new “Shepherd’s Star” on the market, which maintains a lead of… 152% since the start of the year!

This movement of one-off profit-taking also affected Apple (-1.04%), or Broadcomm (-4.38%).

Note on the macroeconomic side, that the PMI indices (industrial and services), in preliminary data for the month of June, exceeded expectations, coming out respectively at 51.7 and 55.1. Remember that by construction, a score above 50 points means an expansion of the sector considered. Figures which did not have any notable consequences on the yield of 10-year Treasuries, which remained stable around 4.26. This bodes well for high PER stocks, of which the index that interests us here is full.

The statistical high point will be reached on Friday with PCE (personal consumption expenditures) prices, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure in its assessment of price dynamics.

Data which will be carefully monitored by both operators and the Fed.

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, a first cut in federal rates in September is envisaged with a probability of 65.9%, a very slight contraction. The tool allows you to analyze the probabilities of changes in federal rates and US monetary policy based on the price of 30-day federal funds futures contracts

Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM, illustrates the idea in “a single number: the rise in food prices in grocery stores was only 1% year-on-year in May in the United States – a low point since June 2021. Inflation is falling in almost all segments of the economy This opens the door to a rate cut by the Fed Contrary to what the consensus thought at the start of the year, there will not be one. seven…but only one When? Difficult to say. It will depend on the next inflation figures and the American presidential election.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

In increasing volumes without being particularly strong, the flagship index of technological stocks on the American stock market has recorded new zeniths three times since June 5 in closing data, closing at session highs, now in the immediate vicinity of the upper limit of the Bollinger bands. Negative opinion on the scale of the upcoming session, on an index which remains ultra firm.

FORECAST

Based on the key chart factors we have identified, our view is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite Index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 18,000.00 points would revive the buying tension. While a break of 17020.00 points would restart the selling pressure.

DAILY DATA CHART