(News Bulletin 247) – The selling mobilization will have been full, throughout the session on Tuesday at the Paris Bourse, whose flagship index, the CAC 40, lost 3.94% to 6,396 points, with the determination displayed by the Russian regime to continue the offensive in Ukraine, regardless of the sanctions brandished by the international community. The index ended exactly at its session lows, at levels not seen since September 20. Since January 1, the reflux has been 10.58%.
Stocks that have locations, holdings, joint ventures or are involved in major projects in Russia once again suffered, such as Societe Generale (-9.36% to 23.24 euros), Renault ( -11.23% to 25.335 euros), Engie (-13.19% to 12.386 euros) or Technip (-11.79% to 8.90 euros). Fearing the effects of a shortage of titanium, a metal widely used in aviation and of which Russia is a major producer, investors have also sanctioned the aeronautics sector (Safran -9.6%, Airbus -9.3%). The last two places in the downward “prize list” of compartment A are occupied by the automotive supplier Faurecia (-13.57% to 29.43 euros), due to gloomy figures on the dynamics of registrations, and by Atos (-20.38% to 25.43 euros), after the publication of its quarterly copy.
Once again, macroeconomic statistical indicators have been relegated to the background. We should nevertheless mention the industrial PMIs in the Euro Zone, in line with expectations (at 58.2 for the IHS Markit data in final data for January) and above expectations for the American manufacturing ISM for January at 58.6.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices fell, although to a lesser extent than in Europe. The Dow Jones lost 1.76% to 33,294 points on Tuesday and the Nasdaq Composite 1.59% to 13,532 points. The S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, fell 1.55% to 4,306 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.1220. A barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $95.20.
To follow in priority, on the agenda this Wednesday, the very first estimates of inflation in January in the Euro Zone at 2:15 p.m., as well as the results of the ADP survey on American employment.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The 6,760 points, which we have identified so far as a gradually weakened floor, gave way, on a wide gap, opening the way to a new market phase. Recall that the index traced from February 16 to 18 a combination of candles in three crows. This combination was immediately followed by a very significant bearish engulfing structure, accompanied by volumes that were far from timid for a session, let’s not forget, without American benchmarks due to a public holiday. The last phase of weakening of the aforementioned support will therefore have been aggressive. the pullback Friday will have been surgically precise. A phase of high volatility begins. the marubozu of school traced Tuesday 01/03 is a first step.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is trading below the resistance at 6760.00 points.
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
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