EUR/USD: Waiting for a new catalyst

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

Currency traders are stalling and waiting for a new macroeconomic catalyst to take initiatives. Indeed, the European currency has been stable since last Friday and the speech by the chairman of the Federal Reserve, who adopted a dovish tone, has reinforced the likelihood of a rate cut at the next meeting in September. European political news has had no influence at this stage. However, French President Emmanuel Macron has ruled out the possibility of a left-wing alliance to form the next French government. Without any notable progress on the geopolitical front either, investors are relying on traditional statistics. They will welcome the figures for the composite housing price index in the United States at 3:00 p.m. and then at 4:00 p.m. the consumer confidence index delivered by the Conference Board.
The European currency is stable and still positioned on the upper part of the candlestick generated by Jackson Hole, a sign that traders remain optimistic about the euro. We will continue to favor purchases on pullbacks in the direction of the upward trend. The 20-period daily moving average is therefore to be followed. In the very short term, we will monitor the closing of the Bollinger ranges which could indicate a weakening of the euro.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

Considering the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity.

We will maintain this neutral opinion as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity rates are positioned between the support at 1.1134 USD and the resistance at 1.1250 USD.

DAILY DATA CHART