PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are seen falling at the opening on Friday after a positive week for global markets while investors await the publication of several European indicators later in the day.

According to the first available indications, the Parisian CAC 40 could open down 0.3% at opening.

Futures contracts report a drop of 0.33% for the Dax in Frankfurt, 0.23% for the FTSE in London and a stable Stoxx 600.

Last week, global markets ended on a positive note, buoyed by China’s announcement of its most aggressive stimulus plan since the pandemic.

The publication, last Thursday and Friday, of data on the job market and on American inflation also reinforced expectations of a significant cut in interest rates at the next meeting of the Federal Reserve, which will take place in November, as the third quarter of 2024 draws to a close. The publication on Friday of the official report on job creation in the world’s largest economy will also weigh in the balance.

Across the Atlantic, the publication of inflation figures in the euro zone, which will be published on Tuesday, will be closely examined pending the next meeting of the ECB scheduled for October 17. Investors now consider that there is more than a 50% chance that the ECB will reduce its rates by 25 basis points in October, which they considered unlikely just a few days ago. Euro zone economic activity contracted unexpectedly in September, fueling fears that the ECB was behind schedule in readjusting its monetary policy.

On the geopolitical side, however, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East risks counterbalancing the positive effects of expectations around lower rates.

This Monday, investors will be able to digest the retail sales and preliminary inflation figures in Germany as well as the British GDP.

A WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange ended in disorganized order on Friday with the Dow Jones which however closed on a record after the latest inflation figures reassured investors.

The Dow Jones index gained 0.33%, or 137.89 points, to 42,313.00 points.

The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 7.2 points, or 0.13% to 5,738.17 points.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 70.701 points, or 0.39%, to 18,119.59 points.

Although down, the tech-heavy Nasdaq and S&P 500 remained near their recent record highs.

In terms of values, Bristol-Myers Squibb gained 1.58% after the American drug authority approved its treatment for schizophrenia.

Costco Wholesale fell 1.75% after results considered disappointing in the fourth quarter.

IN ASIA

Markets were hesitant in Asia on Monday, as the conflict in the Middle East somewhat dispersed the enthusiasm caused by the Chinese recovery, while the Nikkei plunged due to concerns caused by the new Japanese Prime Minister, who declared in favor of a normalization of interest rates.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange ended lower on Monday, posting a decline of 4.8% for the Nikkei.

In China, the composite index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange increased by 7.26% and the CSI 300 of large capitalizations advanced by 7.72%.

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange gained 3.65%.

RATE

Amid escalation in the Middle East and speculation around rate cuts across global central banks, yields are under some pressure.

The yield on ten-year Treasuries fell 0.03%.

The yield on the ten-year German Bund, the benchmark for the euro zone, rose by 0.1%.

CHANGES

The dollar fell on Friday after mixed US inflation data indicated that price pressure continued to ease.

The dollar lost 0.12% against a basket of reference currencies.

The euro 0.04% to 1.1167 dollars.

OIL

Oil prices rose on Monday, driven by growing concerns about the potential impact of Israel’s intensifying attacks in the Middle East on supply from the region’s producers.

The barrel of Brent increased by 0.94% and that of American light crude (WTI) gained 1.03%.

(Written by Pauline Foret, edited by Kate Entringer)

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