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Sudden reversal of steam for the CAC 40 yesterday, the flagship Parisian index turning around 2%, to 7,635 points, at the end of a black Monday for the automobile sector in Europe. Three manufacturers lowered their outlook Friday evening or Monday morning: Aston Martin (-23% in London), Volkswagen (-4.5% in Frankfurt) and Stellantis (-14.7%).
For the 2024 financial year, the group led by Carlos Tavares announced that it was now counting on a current operating margin of between 5.5% and 7%, whereas it previously anticipated a rate at least equal to 10%. In addition, the company indicated that it expects negative industrial free cash flow ranging from -5 billion to -10 billion euros whereas it previously expected to generate positive cash flow.
By mimicry, Renault plunged, in smaller proportions, by 5.57%. Equipment manufacturers Forvia (-5.80%), OPMobility (-4.12%) and Valeo (-2.92%) also suffered.
In terms of statistics, in Germany, inflation has fallen to its lowest level since February 2021, with price growth of 1.6% over one year. “Today’s figures do not definitively resolve the inflation problem. For that to happen, the underlying inflation rate, still high, would have to fall significantly. And this decline has not yet happened. place,” Deutsche Bank said.
The good moods seen last week in the wake of announcements of support measures for the Chinese economy occasionally give way to a decline in prices, as the general policy speech of Mr. Barnier, the new prime minister, approaches this Tuesday. French minister.
“On the political level, France remains a point of attention for investors; the country’s 10-year borrowing rate even exceeded that of Spain on Thursday, a first since 2007! In question, the uncertainties regarding the Barnier government and fears about growth while the additional deterioration of public finances raises fears of a tightening of the budgetary screws”, warns Romane Ballin, bond manager of Auris Gestion, who also mentions the situation in the Middle East:
“Israel’s elimination of several Hezbollah leaders on Lebanese soil rekindles tensions, especially since Iran has indicated that it will not leave its ally alone, which could lead to a widening of the conflict. If, at At this stage, the impact on the financial markets is contained, it is necessary to remain cautious: the geopolitical risk remains high.”
On the other side of the Atlantic, operators remained cautious on Monday, with the Dow Jones ending in balance and the Nasdaq Composite nibbling 0.38% to 18,189 points. The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.42% to 5,762 points.
An update on other risky asset classes: around 8 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.1130. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $68.10.
On the agenda this Tuesday, to follow as a priority the first estimates of consumer prices in the Euro Zone in September, and across the Atlantic, the manufacturing ISM, new JOLTS job offers and construction spending at 4:00 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
On Thursday, September 26, the CAC index crossed 7,700 points, a major graphic threshold. Not only did he cross it, but he did so in technical conditions providing credit: increasing volumes, gap, closing at session highs, participation of at least 3 sectors, major economic news.
The bullish message was reinforced by the ability to finish on weekly highs thanks to Friday’s session. The participation, measured by volumes, over the whole week, will also have given meaning, as will the participation of several sectors in the increase, not just luxury. In particular, we have seen good recoveries in mining-type cyclicals, or leading players in automotive equipment.
On Monday, September 30, the index fell back below this level, hampering the chances of seeing it fall into lasting support. The next sessions will be decisive.
FORECAST
Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This bullish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is trading above support at 7465.00 points.
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