(News Bulletin 247) – As on the main main stock exchanges in the Euro Zone, the Euro found its way back down against the safe haven Dollar, the day after an extremely strong technical rebound. The whole challenge of the day for forex traders will be to interpret the language of the press conference at 2:30 p.m., which will mark the end of a new Board of Governors which is similar, in the current geopolitical context, to a real balancing act.
The situation for the ECB is “complex”, according to T. GIUDICI (Auris Gestion), “because the zone is more directly impacted by the Russian-Ukrainian situation. If the insinuations (and the things left unsaid) by Christine Lagarde in February for a more hawkish ECB, it could finally catch up with the branches of the December decisions which provided for an increase in the APP (to compensate for the PEPP) until the end of the year before a possible first rate hike in 2023. ” First elements of response today at the end of the Board of Governors.
This in order not to break the growth dynamic at the worst moment, at the end of the health crisis. Remember that two of the three main economic powers of the Euro Zone are highly dependent on Russia for their supply of natural gas, between 52 and 55% for Germany and 45% for Italy.
In terms of statistics, once again relegated to the background yesterday, the new job vacancies (JOLTS) once again highlighted signs of tension on the employment front, a sign to which the Fed is paying close attention, in as a leading indicator of inflation.
To follow as a priority, on the agenda this Thursday, the ECB press conference at 2:30 p.m. following the Board of Governors (monetary policy decision at 1:45 p.m.) and for the United States, the various price indices consumption and weekly registrations for unemployment benefits at 2:30 p.m.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.1035 about.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The transition phase between February 4 and 23, in the form of a slip without federation, under the 100-day moving average (in orange) is over. The underlying bearish bias aligns with the short term, and the plot of a candle conspicuous by its red body on Thursday 2/24 illustrates the firm grip of the selling side. With 6 red bodied candles over the last 6 candles, the last one still being drawn, and continued selling mobilization over the past week, the picture remains gloomy. We are reviewing our bearish targets, at $1.0685, then if necessary at $1.0454. In the immediate term, and in the absence of an interesting entry point, traders will avoid taking an immediate position.
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity prices are positioned between the support at 1.0685 USD and the resistance at 1.1140 USD.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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